As Europe turns right, why is a center-left party projected to win by a landslide in the UK?
Last month’s European elections saw a historic number of lawmakers from hard-right and far-right parties elected to the European Parliament. The results caused such chaos that French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election in his own country, the first round of which the far-right National Rally won last week.
A government comprised of far-right figures was formed in the Netherlands this week. Italy is led by the most right-wing leader since the rule of fascist wartime leader Benito Mussolini. These electoral victories and the prospect of populist right-wingers in power is no longer a surprise in European countries.
There are many reasons for this rise in populism, often unique to individual countries. But broadly speaking, a number of European countries are suffering from sluggish economies, high immigration and higher energy prices, due in part to the drive for carbon net zero. The European Union is often blamed for national woes by populist politicians and breathes oxygen into an increasingly Euroskeptic national discourse.
So why is Britain, the only country where Euroskepticism led to a referendum on EU membership, projected to buck this trend?
Despite the expected seat count, the British right is far from dead. The Conservative Party, despite its undeniably disappointing night, is set to outperform the expectations of a number of opinion polls during the campaign, some of which had it down to double digits in parliament.
Another party that is set to exceed polling expectations is the populist right-wing Reform UK, led by long-term scourge of the Conservatives, Nigel Farage, who is perhaps best known these days for his friendship with former US President Donald Trump. Before this, he was credited with making Brexit possible after decades of campaigning against the UK’s membership of the EU.
Farage’s political success to date has all come without him holding a parliamentary seat. Now he is not only projected to have a seat himself, but also 12 colleagues to hurl grenades at Labour leader Keir Starmer. While this may seem small fry compared to Starmer’s anticipated three-figure majority, Farage will no doubt influence the debate on the future direction of the Conservative Party, possibly dragging it further to the right.
It is possible that Farage’s splitting of the right has actually helped Starmer increase his majority in parliament. An odd quirk of British politics is that the percentage of votes a party gets doesn’t necessarily translate to seats. And with Reform performing well in many of the seats that Labour will ultimately win, the hard-right will not only be impossible to ignore in this parliament, but it could easily see its influence grow further.
Britain suffers from many of the same problems as other European countries. If Starmer falters as prime minister, there is every chance that the popular right could continue to capture the public’s imagination, as it has elsewhere in Europe.
The win of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, in the British elections could further shift the Conservative Party towards the right, as he is projected to gain a seat and bring 12 colleagues to Parliament. The rise of populist right-wingers in power is no longer unexpected in the world of European politics, with countries like Italy and the Netherlands currently led by right-wing leaders.
