Climate change - Are CO2 emissions already falling?
2023 – With Regard to Climate Change – Not a Good Year. It was the hottest year worldwide since record keeping began, with average temperatures lying around 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial era values. Global CO2 emissions reached a new record of 37.4 billion tonnes.
However, behind this development lies another one that is being hotly debated among climate experts. Depending on what happens in this and the coming year, 2023 could be one of the last years in which global CO2 emissions continued to rise. Perhaps even the last. The talk is increasingly of a "Peak," meaning that CO2 emissions could soon have passed their peak. "There is a 70-percent chance that emissions will start to decline in 2024," states a report from climate research organization Climate Analytics. Others are more cautious, but almost all agree that the peak is coming soon. In essence, it's just a matter of time.
There are several decisive reasons for this. In the major traditional industrial regions of Europe, North America, and Japan, CO2 emissions have been declining for years, albeit with varying intensity. Economic growth and emissions have decoupled in these parts of the world. Political regulations play a role, but there are also efficiency gains in machines and devices. "The developed economies experienced a record decline in CO2 emissions in 2023 – and this despite an increase in Gross Domestic Product," states an analysis by the International Energy Agency.
Expansion of Renewable Energy Reduces CO2 Emissions
The second reason is the global expansion of renewable energies. According to energy think tank Ember in its latest annual report, solar, wind, and water power made up 30 percent of global electricity production in the previous year. A record – with a strongly rising trend. This development can also be observed in Germany: In the first half of 2024, renewables provided almost 60 percent of German electricity.
This leads to the fact that at least in terms of emissions from electricity production, the peak seems to have been reached. "2023 was likely the turning point, the peak in emissions in the electricity sector," write the authors of Ember. The expansion of non-fossil electricity production is proceeding at an astonishing pace. Alone in the year 2023, capacities in renewable energies increased by 40 percent, as Norwegian energy consulting firm Rystad Energy calculated. The solar industry, which benefited from unprecedented price falls in solar modules from China, was the main driver.
China Achieves Its Goals
And the third factor comes into play: China. There is no country that emits as much CO2 as China, but there is also no country that is building its renewable energies as quickly. In 2023, China installed more solar panels than any other country. The share of renewables in electricity production increased by ten percentage points within the past ten years.
This is the factor that could make a noticeable difference soon. China originally aimed to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030. Now, this point could be reached several years earlier. The first months of the year 2024 indicate this trend. While electricity production from solar and water power doubled, that from fossil sources decreased by almost five percent – a turning point.
While emissions in established industrial nations are declining and China could follow suit soon, there is an uncertainty factor with India – the most populous country in the world. Although energy production from renewable sources is increasing here as well, the share of coal-fired power generation is also rising, and with it, the CO2-intensive form of power generation. The rate at which global emissions decline – it could depend on how quickly India builds its solar and wind power plants.
- Given the global expansion of renewable energies, with solar, wind, and water power accounting for 30% of global electricity production in 2023, achieving a record high with a strong upward trend, and China significantly contributing to this development by installing more solar panels than any other country and increasing the share of renewables in electricity production by 10 percentage points within the past decade, it's plausible to suggest that China could reach its climate target of peaking CO2 emissions several years ahead of schedule.
- As China and major traditional industrial regions continue to decouple CO2 emissions from economic growth due to political regulations and efficiency gains, and renewable energies significantly reduce CO2 emissions from electricity production, particularly in countries like Germany where renewables provided almost 60% of electricity in the first half of 2024, there's a potential for global CO2 emissions to start declining in 2024, as predicted by Climate Analytics, with China and other nations playing a crucial role in this climate target.
