Approximately one-third of car buyers opt for internal combustion engines rather than electric when purchasing a new vehicle.
The objectives are lofty, but progress is sluggish: A minimal number of Germans are purchasing electric vehicles personally. It's predicted that this year, the expansion of electric cars could advance at its most sluggish pace in four years, as per HUK Coburg's projections.
When purchasing a vehicle, merely a tiny fraction of the German populace is transitioning to completely electric ones, according to HUK Coburg's computations. During the third quarter of this year, only 3.9% of private car owners opted for an electric car during their vehicle acquisition, whether new or used, as calculated by HUK for its first "E-Barometer". The proportion of battery cars in the private automobile fleet rose by merely 0.1% from July to September, totaling 2.9%. Additionally, there appears to be some degree of regression: Nearly one-third of previous electric vehicle owners elected for a combustion engine when changing their vehicle in 2023.
HUK, managing nearly 14 million insured vehicles, is the foremost entity in German car insurance and records a six-figure number of vehicle owners switching annually. This internal dataset served as the basis for the computations. HUK has retrospectively calculated the electric vehicle percentage in the private vehicle fleet for all quarters commencing from the beginning of 2020. As per this assessment, the conversion rate has returned to the 2021 level despite a broader range of electric car models and technological advancements, following the federal government's elimination of the purchase incentive.
Unlike the Federal Motor Transport Authority with its new registration statistics, the company analyzed only the purchasing behavior of personal car owners, including used cars, and excluded corporate cars for its "E-Barometer". "We intend to utilize this instrument to measure the acceptance and conversion speed to electric cars among the German private population and display developments," said HUK board member Jörg Rheinländer.
This year, the expansion of electric cars could slow nationwide at its most leisurely pace in four years, according to HUK. There are also substantial disparities among federal states: The highest proportion of electric cars is 3.4% in Bavaria, while Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt are at the bottom with 1.5% each.
Political objective still remains distant
The company thus raises the question of whether there might be a "fundamental acceptance issue". The proportion of electric car supporters in a companion representative YouGov survey with 4,147 participants was higher, with 17% saying they intended to switch from a combustion engine to an electric motor within the next two years. However, if all those surveyed followed through on their intentions, HUK's calculations reveal that the federal government's objective of 15 million pure electric cars on German roads by 2030 would still not be achieved.
This assessment aligns with a forecast published by the consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the non-governmental organization Agora Verkehrswende at the end of July. According to this report, the target of 15 million electric cars would be missed by six million vehicles if the current trend continues. Moreover, the EU's import tariffs on Chinese electric cars could also further deteriorate the situation, as suggested by most experts.
Despite the availability of a wider range of electric car models and technological advancements, the conversion rate of private vehicle owners to electric cars has returned to the 2021 level. This means that only a small number of Germans are still transitioning to electric cars when purchasing new or used vehicles.
Despite the political objective of having 15 million pure electric cars on German roads by 2030, HUK's calculations suggest that this goal would still not be achieved even if all those surveyed who intend to switch from combustion engines to electric motors within the next two years actually follow through with their plans. This indicates that there may be a fundamental acceptance issue hindering the widespread adoption of electric cars in Germany.
