Anticipated Massive Mortalities Due to Growing Antibiotic Resistance
Antibiotics are a common treatment for various infections, yet their excessive and incorrect usage leads to an escalating issue of antibiotic resistance. This situation makes it easier for harmful germs to affect individuals, potentially resulting in millions of deaths globally by 2050. According to research, antibiotic-resistant germs could be responsible for over 169 million deaths, with an estimated 39 million deaths due to these resistant infections by 2050.
The primary contributing factor to this rise in resistance is the prevalent overuse and misuse of antibiotics in both human and veterinary medicine. Each application can foster the growth of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, offering them an edge in survival. Predicting future trends is vital for implementing lifesaving countermeasures, stated Mohsen Naghavi from the University of Washington, a key author of the study.
The team conducted an extensive data analysis, amassing 520 million data sets to map the evolution of antibiotic resistance between 1990 and 2021. Based on these findings, they projected future trends, which were subsequently published in "The Lancet."
The model also proposed a positive trajectory: Improved treatment for severe infections and better access to antibiotics could avoid 92 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.
The magnitude of the resistance problem can be challenging to quantify, as it often intertwines with other causes such as cancer treatments. Researchers utilized numerous data sources, including hospital discharge data, cause of death data, antibiotic usage surveys, and many more, to analyze the prevalence of resistances and develop a global model.
From 1990 to 2021, approximately one million people worldwide died annually due to antibiotic resistance, with a slight increase from 1.06 million in 1990 to 1.14 million in 2021. Considering population growth, the mortality rate per 100,000 individuals decreased from 19.8 (1990) to 14.5 (2021).
The demographic trend shows a stark contrast between age groups: While the number of resistance-related deaths in children under five years old has reduced by half, the number in individuals aged 70 or older has increased by 80%.
Looking at young children, researchers attribute the reduction to decreased medication-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae and pathogens transmitted through fecal-oral contact, attributed to vaccination campaigns and improved hygiene conditions. The increase in cases among the elderly can be linked to the reduced effectiveness or intolerance of vaccines and drugs in the elderly, as well as an increased prevalence of underlying diseases.
As the population aged 64 and above is projected to expand significantly in the coming years, the number of annual deaths due to resistance is also expected to rise, according to the model: from 1.14 million (2021) to 1.91 million (2050). The number of deaths involving multi-drug resistant organisms could increase from 4.71 million to 8.22 million.
To avert this grim scenario, researchers emphasize the need for new strategies to minimize the risk of severe infections through vaccines, novel drugs, improved healthcare, enhanced access to existing antibiotics, and guidelines for effective usage. The antibiotic crisis is not confined to low- or middle-income nations; regions such as the US and Canada have also seen a significant increase in antibiotic resistance-related deaths between 1990 and 2021.
By 2050, the most drastic increase rates are predicted in South Asia (including India), Latin America, and the Caribbean. "These data must drive investments and targeted actions to combat the growing antimicrobial resistance challenge in all regions," urged Samuel Kariuki from the Kenya Medical Research Institute, who was not involved in the study.
Children can be affected by antibiotic-resistant infections, which are a growing global concern. According to the model, the number of resistance-related deaths in children under five years old has decreased due to improved vaccination campaigns and hygiene conditions.
