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Analyzing the German outcomes of the EU elections: which party fares well with certain groups?

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as a major victor in Germany's European elections, while the Greens experienced significant setbacks. Insights from polls on Sunday highlighted the demographic sectors in which the AfD excelled, as well as the areas where the Greens underperformed.

Flags at AfD election party
Flags at AfD election party

Analyzing the German outcomes of the EU elections: which party fares well with certain groups?

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) sported remarkable success, notably among young adults, men, female workers, and those with lower socioeconomic status, according to Institut Infratest Dimap analysis. In contrast, the Greens experienced their top marks with more educated individuals and women.

Youngsters aged 16-24 gave the AfD and the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) equal footing, each accounting for 17% of this demographic group as their preferred choice. The Greens, however, secured a meager 11%.

Furthermore, the AfD dominated within the working class, taking 34% of their votes, while the provisional Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Left Party each mustered only 12% and 3%, respectively.

In the low-income bracket, the AfD achieved a remarkable 33% of the votes, tying with the CDU/CSU, whereas the Greens struggled in this realm, settling for 6%. Even in the over-70 age group, the Green Party attracted a meager 7%.

Voter migration data revealed which parties suffered from mass exodus. Infratest Dimap showed that the AfD absorbed countless voters from other parties: 620,000 from the Union, 580,000 from the SPD, 470,000 from the Free Democratic Party (FDP), 160,000 from the Left Party, and 50,000 from the Greens.

Among the existing AfD voter base, 360,000 chose the Wagenknecht Party BSW, and 50,000 opted for non-voting.

On the flip side, the Greens experienced substantial losses to other political parties. With the exception of the SPD, which saw an influx of 80,000 Green voters, the Greens witnessed severe erosion in support. With 560,000 Greens defectors heading towards the non-voter ranks, their demise continued, with a further 520,000 choosing the Wagenknecht Party BSW.

The largest shrinkage for the Greens came in the form of voters who joined the non-voter contingent, a figure surpassing 560,000. Similarly, the SPD lost close to 2.6 million voters, who either became non-voters (1.4 million) or switched to the Union (580,000), AfD (520,000), or Wagenknecht Party BSW (410,000), and partly considering the dwindling support to other failing party Left Party.

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