Analyzing the German outcomes of the EU elections: which party fares well with certain groups?
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) sported remarkable success, notably among young adults, men, female workers, and those with lower socioeconomic status, according to Institut Infratest Dimap analysis. In contrast, the Greens experienced their top marks with more educated individuals and women.
Youngsters aged 16-24 gave the AfD and the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) equal footing, each accounting for 17% of this demographic group as their preferred choice. The Greens, however, secured a meager 11%.
Furthermore, the AfD dominated within the working class, taking 34% of their votes, while the provisional Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Left Party each mustered only 12% and 3%, respectively.
In the low-income bracket, the AfD achieved a remarkable 33% of the votes, tying with the CDU/CSU, whereas the Greens struggled in this realm, settling for 6%. Even in the over-70 age group, the Green Party attracted a meager 7%.
Voter migration data revealed which parties suffered from mass exodus. Infratest Dimap showed that the AfD absorbed countless voters from other parties: 620,000 from the Union, 580,000 from the SPD, 470,000 from the Free Democratic Party (FDP), 160,000 from the Left Party, and 50,000 from the Greens.
Among the existing AfD voter base, 360,000 chose the Wagenknecht Party BSW, and 50,000 opted for non-voting.
On the flip side, the Greens experienced substantial losses to other political parties. With the exception of the SPD, which saw an influx of 80,000 Green voters, the Greens witnessed severe erosion in support. With 560,000 Greens defectors heading towards the non-voter ranks, their demise continued, with a further 520,000 choosing the Wagenknecht Party BSW.
The largest shrinkage for the Greens came in the form of voters who joined the non-voter contingent, a figure surpassing 560,000. Similarly, the SPD lost close to 2.6 million voters, who either became non-voters (1.4 million) or switched to the Union (580,000), AfD (520,000), or Wagenknecht Party BSW (410,000), and partly considering the dwindling support to other failing party Left Party.
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The EU election result showed that the Left Party performed poorly, securing only 3% of the votes from Germany's working class. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) both gained support from young adults aged 16-24, with each party garnering 17% of their votes. The CDU/CSU, however, outperformed the AfD among non-voters, attracting 9% of the non-voting population, compared to the AfD's 6%.
The SPD also managed to secure a higher percentage of non-voters, with 17% of non-voters preferring the Social Democratic Party over the AfD. The Alliance 90/The Greens did not fare as well among non-voters, only gaining 8% of their support.
In the European elections, the CDU/CSU and the AfD were the two main parties that benefited from voter migration. The AfD absorbed a significant number of voters from other parties, including 620,000 from the CDU/CSU. In contrast, the Greens experienced severe erosion in support, with close to 1.1 million of their supporters switching to other parties or becoming non-voters.
The SPD also lost a large number of voters, with close to 2.6 million leaving the party and either becoming non-voters or switching to other parties. The Greens were the party that suffered the most losses, with a substantial number of their supporters switching to the non-voter ranks (560,000) or choosing other parties, such as the Wagenknecht Party BSW.
The EU elections in Germany saw a rise in support for right-wing parties, with the AfD experiencing notable success among certain groups, such as young adults, men, and the working class. The Greens, on the other hand, faced losses and struggled to gain support from certain demographics, including women and low-income individuals. According to Infratest Dimap analyses, the AfD was able to attract voters from various political parties, while the Greens suffered significant losses to non-voters and other parties.
