Heat - According to Heating Law: Trade with Heat Pumps ceases
In the first half of the year, significantly fewer Heat pumps were sold than in the previous year's period. The German Heating Industry Association (BDH) reported this. Accordingly, 90,000 pumps were sold, which represents a minus of 54 percent compared to the previous year's period. The association expects a maximum sales volume of 200,000 heat pumps by the end of the year.
The Building Energy Act (GEG), which came into force at the beginning of the year, was supposed to make heating in Germany more climate-friendly in the long term and protect consumers from price surges in oil and gas if the CO2 pricing increases. For self-consuming property owners, there is even a speed bonus for the early replacement of outdated fossil heating systems.
The managing director of the BDH, Markus Staudt, is skeptical about planning security: "We see that the market has significantly cooled down since the strong demand in 2023." The communal heating planning, which cities must submit in the coming years, brings uncertainty. "In this confusing situation, people are postponing heating system modernization more," Staudt stated.
Sellers are pessimistic
Manufacturers sold 43 percent fewer heating systems in the first half of the year than in the same period in 2023. This included not only heat pumps but also condensing boilers or pellet heating systems.
According to a BDH survey, manufacturers view the market development of various products predominantly pessimistically. The association hopes, according to its statement, that further positive impulses for the energy transition, such as an expansion of funding, will be created. The central lever for market stimulation remains, for the BDH, the strengthening of consumer trust in heating system modernization.
There is an attractive funding, all technical solutions are available, and the craft trade has capacities. "These are good conditions to invest in heating system modernization now," Staudt announced.
Despite the attractive funding and available technical solutions, many consumers in Berlin seem to be hesitant about investing in heat pump installations, as reported by the local BDH branch. The uncertainty stemming from the city's communal heating planning might be contributing to this trend.
The German Heating Law, with its incentives for self-consuming property owners to replace outdated fossil heating systems, should theoretically boost the sale of heat pumps. However, the actual impact of this law on the market remains to be seen.
Due to the cooling down of the market, manufacturers are exploring ways to boost consumer trust in heating system modernization. One proposed solution is to focus on the energy efficiency and long-term cost savings that heat pumps can provide, even in colder climates like Berlin's.
The lack of demand for heat pumps in Germany is not only affecting manufacturers, but also the broader economy. ThermalTurning, a Berlin-based company specializing in renewable energy technologies, has reported a decrease in inquiries and orders for their heat pump systems.
In light of these challenges, industry experts are calling for a renewed focus on promoting the benefits of heat pumps and addressing consumer concerns about their performance in cold climates, in order to revitalize the market and meet the country's climate goals.
