The arrival date of summer is uncertain.

The onset of summer remains uncertain.

Hey there! The weather in Germany has been pretty crazy lately with all the rain, thunderstorms, and hail. But luckily, summer is just around the corner and so is the European Football Championship. In this interview, ntv weather expert Björn Alexander talks about when we can expect some sunshine and hot temperatures.

ntv.de: With all these thunderstorms, when can we expect a more stable high-pressure phase?

Björn Alexander: Unfortunately, not anytime soon. Some weather models don't foresee a more stable high-pressure phase until the middle of next week, just in time for Corpus Christi when we'll hopefully have a long weekend. But that's not certain yet.

According to the European weather model, things will start to look better, but the American models paint a different picture. If they're right, we'll have to deal with more rain until the end of June, which is the start of summer.

Why is summer considered to start in June?

In meteorological terms, summer starts on June 1, although it's not until a few weeks later that the calendar season changes. This is due to the sun's position, reaching the Tropic of Cancer at this time. Statisticians don't like this fluctuating date, so they set the meteorological summer holiday on June 1, like they do with all other seasons.

Summer starts on June 1 because...

It's more likely that the entire month of June will be summer than spring. There's a stronger chance of heat and sun compared to spring.

Summer is here, kind of. What are the forecasts for the first month of summer?

The experimental long-term forecast predicts June 2024 will be warmer than average or too warm. This is in line with climate change, as it's rare for months or even entire seasons to be too cold these days.

It's not all rain though, right?

Right now, weather experts are estimating average to slightly too wet conditions for June. This amounts to around 80 liters of precipitation per square meter across Germany. After the last two summer months in 2023 and 2022, which were unusually dry, June 2024 could have a more normal rainfall pattern.

May's end...how much rain has fallen?

Germany's average rainfall is around 65 liters per square meter, and May is already on its way to being above that. But there are regional differences.

Where's it rained the most, where the least?

The south-west of Germany has received a lot of rain, while the north-east is still behind in terms of precipitation. However, May's not over yet.

What's the forecast for the upcoming storms?

In the afternoon and evening, Low-pressure system "Maxine" will move into southern Germany, bringing heavy and thunderous rain to some areas. The main danger is from the slow speed of the storm, as it could lead to 20-40 liters of rain in a short time—and possibly more. Hail and strong winds are also possible.

Where will this storm move to?

In the night to Friday, the regions from the Danube to the low mountain ranges will experience heavy rain. As the day goes on, the storm and severe weather zone will spread northwards. On Friday, the western and central regions will be affected first, while the heaviest thunderstorms threaten southern Lower Saxony, Hamburg, and Berlin in the evening. The south away from the Alps and the Black Forest will potentially still see some thunder and lightning.

Temperature-wise, what should we expect?

We can expect temperatures between 22-25 degrees in sunny regions, while it'll be around 17-19 degrees for shadier areas. It'll be quite humid at times.

What's happening over the weekend?

The warm, humid thunderstorm air will linger, so we could still see heavy rain or even storms. It's hard to pinpoint exactly which regions will be affected as the weekend progresses, but it's safe to say it might rain across the whole country. Temperatures will range from 17 to 26 degrees. It'll be warmest in the Berlin and Brandenburg areas.

When can we expect the pendulum to swing the other way next week?

The next week is still uncertain with changing forecasts. Some models suggest a more stable high-pressure phase around the middle of the week, but we'll have to wait and see.

On Monday and Tuesday, not much variance is expected. The temperature range will likely be within 18 to 25 degrees, with occasional heavy thunderstorms popping up throughout the day. Predicting dry areas and focus is challenging or impossible at this time. However, starting Wednesday and Thursday, the forecasted predictions allow for the possibility of improved weather conditions.