Demonstrative financial resources bolster Democrats' aspirations to flip the House of Representatives.
The funds didn't materialize, as reported by two sources privy to the negotiations, resulting in Axne losing the Des Moines-based seat by roughly 2,000 votes. This marked one of almost two dozen tight House races that year that led to Democrats losing their majority.
However, that financial dilemma is now a thing of the past and Democrats are in a commanding position to seize not one, but two Republican-held seats in Iowa. The Vice President, who raised an astonishing $1 billion within three months, has spearheaded a fundraising surge that is reshaping the landscape for lower-rung Democrats and leaving Republican strategists in a state of alarm. The Democrats' financial strength is such that they're contemplating challenging Republican territory in places like Iowa and Wisconsin, which were previously drifting away from the party.
The Democrats' gains in the Midwest come on top of the dozen GOP-controlled seats in New York and California that were already a focal point in the House control battle. The Democrats' substantial summer fundraising has broadened the battleground, with party leaders scouring for every possible means to secure victory. The Republicans are compelled to adopt a defensive posture, thereby precluding them from seriously contesting once-feasible regions such as southwestern Connecticut, Nevada suburbs, and southeastern Pennsylvania.
According to Christina Bohannan, the Democrat in the neighboring Iowa district who shattered fundraising records in her competitive re-election bid against GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, "Excitement and energy spawns money." Bohannan not only outraised Miller-Meeks in the recent quarter, but she also outspent her Republican opponent by almost a 3-to-1 margin. And the Democrats are planning to invest even more in the final weeks.
The prospect of Democrats controlling the House is causing concern among GOP leaders: House Speaker Mike Johnson will visit the district this week, followed by Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders later this month, as per a source familiar with the preparations.
"People are simply energized," Bohannan remarked to CNN. "We had a powerful message in 2022, but we didn't possess sufficient resources to disseminate that message."
However, money alone won't determine which party controls Congress. Although Democrats need to gain just four seats to capture the House, issues such as the border and the economy continue to capture voters' attention, giving the GOP an edge. Additionally, the Trump factor remains potent: Former President Donald Trump continues to perform well among Hispanic voters and working-class voters, fueling GOP aspirations of flipping seats near the US-Mexico border and in rural Alaska and Maine.
"There is no candidate in contemporary history, Democrat or Republican, who inspires voter turnout more effectively than President Trump," Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the House Republican Conference chairwoman, told CNN.
What is indisputable is that whichever party emerges victorious in the House struggle is likely to face another slender margin – making it virtually impossible to govern for another two years.
Democrats’ financial advantage
In the final three-week push, Republicans concede that it's the Democrats' financial superiority that's keeping them up at night.
Out of the 32 most competitive House races, all but two Republicans were outraised by Democrats in the most recent quarter, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and made public on Tuesday. (The two GOP exceptions were Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Rep. Michelle Steel of California.)
All but six of the Democrats surpassed $2 million, and a few collected far more.
In a competitive open seat in central Virginia, the Republican candidate Derrick Anderson raised $1.1 million, placing him among the top House Republican fundraisers this year. However, the Democrat contending in the race, Eugene Vindman, raised a staggering $6.5 million. This allowed him to spend almost 11 times as much as his Republican opponent.
Thereafter, there's Democrat Will Rollins, with a $3.6 million haul against long-term Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in southern California, and Democrat Amish Shah, who's challenging Arizona GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who raised $3.45 million. Both Republican incumbents are now in more dire straits than Republicans had anticipated.
Elon Musk's super PAC has recently invested heavily in Calvert's campaign, while Trump himself campaigned for Calvert in the desert town of Coachella, California, over the weekend.
Rollins described his own fundraising as "higher than we ever believed possible." He viewed Trump's visit as a last-ditch effort to save Calvert, but he predicted: "I don't believe they'll have the resources to execute it. That's why I ultimately believe we'll emerge victorious."
Across the country, senior Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster of New Hampshire recently toured Pennsylvania campaigning for Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson. Her fundraising haul tripled that of her Republican opponent Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chairman.
"It's absurd. It's reminiscent of Senate figures," said Kuster, who is retiring this year after 12 years in a New Hampshire swing seat. "I never had a million-dollar quarter. And now all of the candidates are recording million-dollar quarters."
Top Republicans have been obliged to react: The Republican-aligned super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund announced a $2.6 million investment to assist Perry in a seat that Trump won by nearly 5 points this week.
In another "reach" seat, the Democrats raised so much money against Steel that Republicans transferred money from a highly competitive open seat in Orange County to help protect the GOP congresswoman. And the Republican group is even commencing to invest in an open Colorado seat that Trump won by 8 points.
One incumbent, Rep. Don Bacon from Nebraska, suspects he might lose his election due to the massive financial influx from Kamala Harris and her allies. He cited the staggering spending of $21 million on advertisements in his district by Harris, compared to Trump's $100,000.
Bacon expressed his concern, stating, "My primary issue right now is us getting outspent at the top level." He wished Trump would introduce some advertisements highlighting why voters should support him, as this would benefit the entire party. Bacon further acknowledged, "Currently, the other side seems to hold all the trump cards, but we're still in the game."
Two years ago, Bacon's rival, Sen. Tony Vargas, was significantly outspent by Republican Super PACs. However, this time, the Democrats have enough funds to counterbalance. Vargas shared with CNN, "Thanks to these resources, we've been able to reply."
While Trump has been engrossed in his own race, candidate Johnson and his team, including Rep. Richard Hudson, have been urgently soliciting last-minute funds from fellow Republicans.
However, Democrats took the initiative by airing ads early in GOP-held seats. This forced Republican outside groups to respond, consequently limiting their offensive opportunities in those areas. Consequently, Republicans decided not to contest some once-competitive districts, such as those of Reps. Angie Craig, Nikki Budzinski, and Hillary Scholten.
A senior Republican House aide acknowledged, "The money is definitely sounding alarm bells." They expressed difficulty in keeping up with the Democratic spending and warned that potential losses could be a significant point of evaluation after the election.
With fewer Republican members to defend, the Democratic Party, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, entered some seemingly unattainable races. House Majority PAC is now participating in more challenging races, such as those of Perry, Zinke, and De La Cruz.
Zinke himself issued an urgent fundraising appeal, warning supporters, "If I don't significantly improve my fundraising, not only will I lose my seat, but Republicans may never regain control of Congress again." Despite raising $2 million, Zinke was still outraised by his Democratic opponent.
Trump Bolsters GOP's Hopes
Democrats need to win several seats in two critical states to reclaim the House: New York and California**. These seats, theoretically, lean towards Democrats. However, some concerning signs have surfaced.
Elise Stefanik, aiming to safeguard the GOP's position in New York, stated that Trump is currently surpassing his poll numbers from the previous two elections, while Harris is falling short of Biden and Clinton's numbers.
"There's a reason Trump is visiting Madison Square Garden," Stefanik said. "Trump believes in the GOP's potential to win in New York."
Privately, Republicans believe they may lose at least two incumbents in the blue states: Reps. Brandon Williams in Syracuse and John Duarte in California's Central Valley (along with Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon, where Trump's support has not improved). Many are also anxious about Reps. Mike Garcia and Marc Molinaro.
However, Republicans are hopeful about heavily Hispanic seats in Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas, where Trump is helping them advance. Democrats fear Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Colorado is particularly vulnerable.
Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, representing a portion of the US-Mexico border in south Texas, suggested that the Democrats cannot take Hispanic voters for granted. As Democrats have been slow in addressing border issues, he warned that Republicans are gradually eroding their Hispanic voter base.
Cuellar added, "In the eyes of many voters, the Democrats appear weak on border security, while Republicans appear strong on border security. I won't say 'I told you so,' but I've been saying, 'This is important.'"
CNN's David Wright, Fredreka Schouten, Matt Holt, and Alex Leeds Matthews contributed to this report.
The Democrats' substantial summer fundraising has significantly enhanced their position in politics, allowing them to consider challenging Republican-held seats in traditionally Republican areas like Iowa and Wisconsin. The financial superiority of Democrats in competitive House races is keeping many Republican candidates up at night, with Democrats outraising Republicans in all but two races in the most recent quarter.
