Baja las tasas de interés hipotecarias.
Para las personas que están considerando comprar una casa y que podrían haber sido reacias, el reciente descenso en las tasas de hipoteca podría plantear una situación complicada.
Las tasas de interés más bajas podrían conceder a los compradores de casas un mayor poder adquisitivo. Sin embargo, podrían desencadenar más competencia entre los buscadores de casas, aumentando aún más los ya elevados precios de las casas.
Según Greg McBride, analista financiero jefe de Bankrate, "Es uno de esos casos en los que debes tener cuidado con lo que deseas". Una disminución adicional en las tasas de hipoteca podría desencadenar un aumento en la demanda, lo que dificultaría aún más la compra de una casa.
Aumento de la rivalidad en el mercado inmobiliario
Una casa suele ser la compra más grande de una persona, y últimamente, el costo de esa inversión ha aumentado.
Los problemas de asequibilidad que han azotado el mercado inmobiliario de EE. UU. durante años se han agravado después del aumento agresivo de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal en su lucha contra la inflación hace más de dos años, con los precios de las casas alcanzando niveles récord.
Sin embargo, según Freddie Mac, la tasa promedio de hipoteca fija a 30 años bajó a 6.46% la semana pasada, su nivel más bajo en más de un año y significativamente por debajo de su pico del 7.79% del año pasado. Hay un consenso creciente de que la Fed disminuirá las tasas de interés el mes que viene, aunque no establece directamente las tasas de hipoteca, sus acciones influyen en los costos de préstamo en toda la economía.
Más compradores de casas han starting acting upon this: Existing home sales increased by 1.3% in July, marking an end to four consecutive months of sales decline, as indicated by the National Association of Realtors.
Experts believe the demand for homes will escalate further.
"We've observed substantial upticks in demand whenever interest rates decrease," said Vishal Garg, CEO of Better.com, an online mortgage lending company, speaking to CNN. Along with the increased demand comes fierce competition, particularly as the USA grapples with a housing inventory scarcity compared to demand.
There's another element that could boost demand starting this month: Recent modifications implemented by the National Association of Realtors.
The changes, which took effect on August 17, are intended to transform the way the 1.5 million NAR real estate experts are compensated when they assist in buying and selling homes.
"There's an expectation that perhaps there could be lower transaction fees at some point in the future," said Charles Dougherty, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. "That might have encouraged some buyers and sellers to postpone their actions until these changes were implemented."
However, Dougherty pointed out that it's too early to determine exactly how the new NAR rules will impact the housing market.
Scarcity of supply has been another significant issue contributing to housing market challenges: Fewer homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic were willing to put their homes up for sale in a higher interest rate environment. Lower rates might finally erode the mortgage "lock-in" effect.
A July Bankrate survey of 1,133 current homeowners revealed that 35% would be comfortable selling their homes this year if mortgage rates fell below 6%. Furthermore, over half of these homeowners said they would be comfortable buying a home this year if rates fell under 6%.
"It's tough to pinpoint the turning point," said McBride. "I do anticipate that we will see more homes hitting the market as mortgage rates decrease."
Should homebuyers wait for rate cuts?
Timing the housing market perfectly is challenging — and potential buyers waiting for the Fed to lower rates even more before diving into the market could be disappointed.
Wells Fargo estimates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.5% by the end of 2024 and 5.9% by the end of 2025.
"We're looking for the 30-year mortgage rate to fall slightly over the coming 18 months or so, but not by a significant amount," Dougherty said. "That will denote a modest improvement in affordability, but mortgage rates are not likely to fall to the 3% rates that were averaged just last year."
McBride advised first-time homebuyers to ensure they are financially prepared before venturing into homeownership rather than basing their decision on small shifts in the average mortgage rate.
"Homeownership is like a marriage," he said. "You've got to be in it for the long run, and you've got to be prepared for all the commitment it entails." "Regardless of where mortgage rates are, if you're biting off more than you can chew financially, that can have pretty devastating consequences if things go wrong."
The lower mortgage rates could help boost a business sector, such as real estate services, as increased demand for houses could lead to more home sales and commissions. However, the escalating house prices due to increased competition might pose challenges for first-time homebuyers trying to afford their dream homes.
Despite the recent slide in mortgage rates, the affordability issues in the US housing market have persisted, making it difficult for many individuals to enter the property market. Businesses in the construction and real estate sectors may still face challenges, as the supply of houses does not meet the demand, leading to competition among buyers.
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