Woidke's Social Democratic Party (SPD) is nearing a significant leap forward, closing in on AfD.
In Brandenburg, with the state election happening soon, things are uncertain. Woidke, the Minister President, has threatened to step down if the AfD wins. This seems to be influencing the situation. According to a recent survey, the SPD is seeing a significant boost.
Ten days before the state election in Brandenburg, the SPD is closing the gap, based on a survey: with 26%, they are just slightly behind the AfD, which stands at 27%. This information comes from the "Brandenburg Trend" survey conducted by Infratest dimap, commissioned by ARD. In comparison to the previous week's poll, the SPD, led by Minister President Dietmar Woidke, has improved by 3 points, while the AfD's popularity remains the same.
The state election for a new parliament in Brandenburg is scheduled for September 22. For this representative ARD poll, Infratest dimap interviewed 1513 eligible voters in Brandenburg from Monday to Wednesday of this week. According to the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the AfD state association is classified as a suspected case of right-wing extremism.
The AfD and the SPD are appearing to be the front-runners, as per the new poll - much like five years ago. The CDU, currently a coalition partner with the SPD and the Greens, is now at 16%, showing a 2-point drop compared to the previous week's poll. The Alliance for Progress and Democracy (AfP), which is participating in the Brandenburg state election for the first time, is at 13%, a decrease of 2 points compared to the previous week.
The Greens and the Free Voters/BVB are each at 4.5%, and The Left is at 4%. According to the survey, all three parties would fall below the 5% threshold. However, it is possible to enter the parliament with at least one direct mandate, even if the threshold is not reached. While the Free Voters/BVB gained 1.5 points compared to the previous poll, the Greens saw a slight decrease, and The Left remained constant.
According to 40% of those surveyed, the SPD should lead the next state government. 25% favor the CDU, and another 20% favor the AfD. The SPD has been in power in Brandenburg since 1990 with various partners, currently with the CDU and the Greens. Woidke has announced his retirement from state politics if the SPD is not in the lead after the election. He has also stated that there will be no campaign appearances by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, the AfD garnered more than 30% in both states. In Thuringia, the AfD became the strongest party.
In summary, opinion polls have their uncertainties. Factors like declining party loyalty and short-term voting decisions make it challenging for polling institutes to accurately weigh the data gathered. These polls merely reflect the current opinion climate and do not predict the election outcome.
Given the upcoming Elections to the Landtag of Brandenburg, the SPD is seeing a significant boost, closing the gap with the AfD. According to the latest survey, the SPD now trails the AfD by only 1%, with 26% support compared to the AfD's 27%.
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