Who are the pairings in Potsdam?
After the upcoming state elections in Brandenburg, predictions suggest a slim majority for the existing red-green-black coalition government, contingent on the Greens making it to the state legislature. However, the Greens' prospects of surpassing the five-percent vote threshold are uncertain.
Recent polls conducted just prior to the election indicate the Greens, the Left, and the Free Voters all well below the critical threshold. This raises questions about potential coalition options in the Brandenburg parliament. A glance at the ntv.de coalition calculator with the latest poll numbers:
Remember, the data for the coalition calculator is continually updated.
The Social Democrats are polling between 22 and 27 percent in Brandenburg, showing fairly robust support. The incumbent Minister President and SPD top candidate Dietmar Woidke is promotin' his party to remain the strongest force in this eastern German state. Nevertheless, the AfD has led in polls relatively consistently over the past few weeks, although their narrow lead has noticeably diminished in recent polls.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) could potentially emerge as the largest faction in the state parliament, mirroring Thuringia's situation. However, AfD faction leader Hans-Christoph Berndt lacks prospects for effective government formation. He finds himself politically isolated in Potsdam without any allies.
The AfD also faces the risk of a replay of the 2019 state election scenario where they were the frontrunner in polls leading up to the election but ultimately trailed the SPD on election day. Dietmar Woidke, who's served as Minister President in Brandenburg since summer 2013, is counting on this happening again.
The experienced SPD politician enjoys widespread popularity. Over half of those surveyed wish for him to continue as Minister President. Dietmar Woidke is strategizing cleverly. If the AfD secures victory, he's promised to step down. "If the AfD comes in first, I can't continue as Minister President," Woidke said straightforwardly. If election night results don't deviate significantly from the latest poll numbers, it may even be enough for the Social Democrat to form a mathematically viable two-party coalition with the CDU.
Three parties aside from the AfD?
The fate of Brandenburg hinges on the votes received by other parties. The CDU could potentially achieve up to 16 percent with its top candidate Jan Redmann, securing them the third-strongest position in the Potsdam parliament.
If the Greens, Left, and Free Voters don't clear the five-percent threshold on election night, the outcome in individual districts will matter: If any of these parties secure a direct mandate in any of the 44 Brandenburg electoral districts, they could still make it into the state parliament via the basic mandate clause. According to the state election commissioner, "Only parties, political groupings, or lists that receive five percent of the valid second votes in the electoral area or win at least one seat in an electoral district will gain entry into the state parliament."
If none of the Greens, Left, or Free Voters manage to do this, Woidke would need to contemplate new coalition scenarios in case of a victory. In this situation, only four (instead of the current six) parties would be present in the Brandenburg parliament. The SPD might then have to construct a government based on a red-black-purple coalition, instead of the current "Kenya" coalition.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the Greens' ability to surpass the five-percent vote threshold in the upcoming Elections to the Landtag of Brandenburg, the potential coalition options in the Brandenburg parliament become a topic of discussion. As mentioned in the ntv.de coalition calculator, the Greens, along with the Left and the Free Voters, are currently polling below the critical threshold, which could influence the formation of a new government.
If the Greens, Left, and Free Voters fail to secure entry into the Brandenburg parliament via the basic mandate clause, the SPD might need to consider alternative coalition scenarios for government formation, such as a red-black-purple coalition, rather than maintaining the current red-green-black coalition government.
