Viewpoint: The single explanation preventing America's population decline

Viewpoint: America's population won't decline due to a single factor.

Biden's comment might have been a bit blunt, but he wasn't lying. Japan, specifically, is expected to witness a drastic decrease in their population by around 33% over the next fifty years.

However, not too long ago, the U.S. Census Bureau released some projected numbers showing that America's population is predicted to start shrinking after 2080.

The only reason the U.S. population hasn't started declining yet is because of immigration. Immigrants, being mostly of working age and having higher fertility rates than the average American, sustain America's economy against a rapid aging process. If the number of immigrants allowed into the country was reduced by half, the U.S. would begin shrinking in 2044.

Populations across the globe change over time due to fluctuations in birth rates and increased life expectancy. The United States, like many other high-income nations, has experienced a substantial decrease in fertility rates over the past fifty years. Combined with an increase in life expectancy, this has accelerated the country's aging population.

An aging population poses two problems. It threatens the solvency of pension and healthcare funds when there aren't enough working-age individuals paying into these funds to support the retired population. Moreover, a declining population means a loss of economic power and market size—two vital aspects of America's geopolitical dominance.

Immigration is the antidote to low fertility rates. Immigrants, who are more likely to be of a working age and have higher birth rates, enrich societies with youth, labor, and innovative minds, offsetting the effects of an aging society. As Biden remarked, this has played a significant role in the U.S. economy's growth and stabilization in recent years. The vast majority of the U.S. population growth has been attributed to immigrants arriving as opposed to an increase in births compared to deaths.

What makes the Census Bureau's most recent projections so grim is that even if immigration levels are maintained at their current rates, the nation is still predicted to start shrinking in 2024. And in case you haven't downloaded Truth Social, the present levels of immigration are not acceptable to modern-day Republicans.

In an interview with Time Magazine, former President Trump said he plans to detain newcomers in camps and deport millions of immigrants who currently live in the U.S.—actions that would accelerate the population decline further.

According to the Census report, the number of Americans over 64 years old will surpass the number of Americans under 18 by 2029. This will leave only 60% of the U.S. population as working-age citizens, down from about 70% in 2010. By 2038, deaths in America are projected to outnumber births for the first time ever. And by 2100, the deficit between births and deaths is expected to reach a staggering 1.2 million annually—double Japan's current deficit.

The U.S. population is projected to reach a peak of almost 370 million in 2080 before starting to decline. But if immigration was cut in half, this milestone would be reached in 2044. If the borders were completely shut, the decline would begin as early as the following year.

The impact of this shift should not be overlooked. If the United States' population growth is solely thanks to immigration, the country's growth will come to a halt when immigration is no longer an option.

Interestingly, Republicans' fearful attitude regarding immigration might be fueled, in part, by an earlier Census report published in March 2015. This report predicted that America's "White" population would fall under 50% in 2044. This news garnered mass media attention and both bolstered liberal hopes for future elections and provoked a conservative backlash against immigration.

In contrast to the earlier study, the latest projection might elicit a different reaction.

In my recent research, my colleagues and I surveyed more than 20,000 adults from 19 European countries. A portion of these participants were informed about the actual demographic trends, much like those unveiled in the latest U.S. Census Bureau report, stating that their country's birth rates were significantly lower than the rate needed to maintain the native population. Another group of participants was also given information about the need to welcome a "significantly increased number of immigrants from countries outside of Europe with higher birth rates, such as Muslim-majority and African countries."

Surprisingly, the individuals in the latter group were more likely to support a greater influx of immigrants than those who weren't exposed to the news about demographic decline at all.

Although my findings refer to European countries, they suggest that people, especially moderates and centrists, tend to be more receptive to immigration when they're fully informed about the consequences of an aging population and the potential solutions that involve an influx of immigrants.

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In Western European countries where the increased birth rates of minorities are offsetting the effects of population aging, participants were not swayed by the far-right's "replacement theory" narrative about immigration being detrimental after it was presented as crucial for the nation's survival. This was particularly true for individuals with moderate political beliefs, those aged 35 and above, and those with average educational levels.

Instead, these participants became more inclined to view immigrants as a means of "refreshing" the nation.

The results of this experiment and the Census Bureau report come at a time when political leaders in both America and Europe are making efforts to secure their borders. However, there is also a need to maintain the population, which is a pressing matter that should be addressed despite the divisiveness surrounding immigration.

Regardless of how strongly the world divides on this issue, demographic aging is a constant and intensifying issue that remains unsettled, and a plausible reason to establish an organized immigration system that maintains the nation's existence for future generations.

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Despite the predicted population decline beyond 2080, some believe that reducing immigration could accelerate this trend. This viewpoint highlights the significant role that diverse opinions play in shaping policy decisions concerning immigration.

The ongoing debate about immigration and its impact on population growth highlights the importance of considering various perspectives, as diverse opinions can shape policies that significantly affect the future of a nation.

Source: edition.cnn.com