- US: Ceasefire in Gaza depends on Hamas leader Sinwar
While the USA urges de-escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, the appointment of Israel's Public Enemy Number One as the new leader of Hamas complicates efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza war. "Another compelling reason to swiftly eliminate him and wipe this despicable organization off the face of the earth," Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote on the X platform.
However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes that Sinwar holds the key to a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The former leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip had already been the key decision-maker on this issue before his appointment as successor to the late Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, Blinken said. "That underscores the fact that it really is up to him to decide whether a ceasefire will move forward."
Sinwar is considered the mastermind behind the Hamas terror attack and other groups in Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in around 1,200 deaths and 250 people being kidnapped and taken to the Gaza Strip. This unprecedented assault sparked the Gaza war.
Report: Sinwar for close coordination with Iran
The appointment of Sinwar as the sole leader of Hamas sends a message that the group stands firmly behind the strategy of armed resistance, according to Jehad Harb, a political analyst at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal. This signals a shift away from Hamas' role as a political entity aiming to govern, the U.S. newspaper wrote. Sinwar also advocates for close coordination with Iran, which does not recognize Israel's right to exist. He appears to have outmaneuvered voices within Hamas that were skeptical of this approach.
Sinwar's predecessor, Haniyeh, who was killed nearly a week ago in Tehran, resided in Qatar's capital, Doha, and was considered Hamas' chief diplomat. Iran and Hamas blame Israel for Haniyeh's death and threaten a harsh retaliatory strike against the Jewish state.
Blinken warns of escalation
Blinken warned of a potential escalation of the conflict in stark terms. "Everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only increase the risk of dangerous consequences that no one can predict or fully control," the U.S. Secretary of State said at a joint press appearance with his Australian counterpart Penny Wong and the defense ministers of both countries in Maryland.
The "decisive moment" has been reached in the indirect negotiations over a ceasefire in Gaza, with Qatar, Egypt, and the USA acting as mediators, Blinken said. "We are firmly convinced that they should very, very soon reach a conclusion," he said. Sinwar, as before, holds the power to decide whether Hamas will agree to a ceasefire.
Report: Sinwar bets on victory
It is believed that Sinwar is hiding in one of Hamas' tunnels under the blockaded Gaza Strip. He is betting on Hamas emerging victorious as a group, the Wall Street Journal wrote. Sinwar has resisted pressure to agree to a ceasefire and a hostage deal, telling mediators that the deaths of Palestinian civilians play to his advantage. "We have the Israelis exactly where we want them," Sinwar told Hamas representatives negotiating with Qatari and Egyptian representatives.
The Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague requested an arrest warrant against Sinwar, Haniyeh, and Sinwar's former deputy Mohammed Deif in May. He accused them, among other things, of "genocide" as well as murder, hostage-taking, rape, and torture as crimes against humanity.
Sinwar's former deputy Deif, chief of the military wing of Hamas, was the target of an Israeli rocket attack in July. Last week, the Israeli army declared him dead. The Israeli leadership has not yet commented on the death of Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
Blinken: No one wants escalation
Amid threats of Iranian and its allies' retaliatory strikes against Israel, there is great concern about escalation in the entire region. The US continues to work intensively to de-escalate the situation and is in constant contact with partners in the region and beyond, said Blinken. "I believe that actually no one wants escalation, no one wants to widen the conflict, but it is very important that it could happen, even if it is unintended."
At the same time, Blinken reaffirmed the "ironclad" support for Israel's self-defense. The US military also continues to take steps to deter escalation by Iran and its allies, said US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Austin pointed to the recent attack on a military base in Iraq, where several US soldiers were injured. "So don't be mistaken: The United States will not tolerate attacks on our personnel in the region," stressed the US Secretary of Defense. The military presence in the region has been adjusted to strengthen the protection of its own forces and to prepare for all possible scenarios. Austin also stressed the US support for Israel's defense.
Biden also mediates
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden separately spoke with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. The talks also touched on negotiations for a prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, which have "now reached a final phase," the White House said. The conversation partners agreed that this process "should be completed as soon as possible."
The European Union, as a major global player, could express concern over the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel and advocate for a diplomatic solution, given its commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East.
Given the strong relationship between Hamas and Iran, the European Union might consider imposing sanctions on Iran if it provides material support to Hamas, as it is not recognized as a legitimate government by the international community and does not respect Israel's right to exist.
