Unidentified faction may gain power in Brandenburg
Before this Sunday's state election in Brandenburg, there are several significant questions at hand. Will the AfD outperform the SPD? Could the Greens be ousted from the Landtag? How powerful will the BSW be? These are some of the central concerns. But there's one party that's flying under the radar, not widely recognized nationally yet, but could potentially serve as the deciding factor in Brandenburg.
Following the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, complications are expected in Brandenburg as well, principally due to the anticipated challenges in forming a government. In Brandenburg, a relatively unknown, state-specific party might emerge as the swing vote.
The party in question is none other than BVB/FW, also known as Brandenburg United Citizens' Movements and Free Voters. Poised to make their debut on the election scene at the 2009 state election, they formed a collaboration with the Brandenburg electoral system's unique coalition possibilities. Since the 2014 state election, they have appeared on the ballot as an independent party between the Prignitz and Oder-Spree, and between the Uckermark and Elbe-Elster.
In 2010, BVB gained national attention when they proposed Stefan Raab as a potential federal president. After Lena's triumph, Péter Vida, then-chairman, referred to the notion as "a serious proposal." However, since then, BVB has largely maintained a low profile. They officially adopted the name BVB/FW in 2011 and collaborate with the primarily Bavarian Free Voters, led by party chairman Hubert Aiwanger.
Equipped with 5.05 percent of the votes in the 2019 election, BVB barely surpassed the five-percent threshold. As of the polls before the election this Sunday, "The Oranges," as the regional party humbly calls itself, is hovering just beneath the critical mark. However, party chairman Péter Vida expresses confidence in returning to the state parliament. "Back in 2019, we were estimated at three percent, but we ended up with five percent. As Free Voters, we always excel in the actual election over polls due to our regional strengths, which some polls might not capture accurately," Vida asserted on Phoenix. "We will definitely surpass five percent."
Brandenburg's Special Electoral System
Even if they fail to meet this threshold, the Free Voters do not automatically lose their chance. If this were to be the case, the first votes emerge as crucial. In Brandenburg, the baseline seat allocation criterion is interpreted quite liberally according to the state electoral law. A party gains entry into the state parliament if it garners less than five percent of the second votes but wins a direct mandate. The party might be able to accomplish this.
Five years ago, Péter Vida secured a direct mandate in the Landkreis Barnim. His recipe for success was door-to-door canvassing to establish connections with the community. The party adopted the color orange to provide it with recognition. Vida and his party colleagues also distribute orange juice at markets during campaigns, embracing what Vida refers to as "middle-populism," devoted to saying things as they are and turning them into reality.
If Vida's middle-populism resonates with voters, the party may become the deciding factor between the SPD and CDU.
Currently, the Brandenburg state government is composed of the SPD, CDU, and Greens. Minister President Dietmar Woidke has expressed his intention to continue as head of government only if his SPD finishes ahead of the AfD. While this is relatively probable, it's not guaranteed as the AfD is currently leading the polls. Should this situation persist on election Sunday, Woidke has stated that he will step down.
In such a scenario, the AfD might endeavor to form a government. However, as none of the parties are willing to form a coalition with them, this is highly improbable. All parties have firmly dismissed the idea of colluding with the AfD.
SPD and CDU may require a further coalition partner
The upcoming government is likely to be led by the SPD yet again, with or without Woidke. While the CDU is expected to participate, a two-party coalition with the SPD may not be sufficient. They may require a third partner.
This could be the Greens, who are at risk of missing out on the state parliament. They are currently polling just below five percent. To boost their chances, Benjamin Raschke, joint top candidate of the Greens with Antje Töpfer, has campaigned for votes in a specific constituency. "If you wish to prevent this state from sliding further to the right, please cast your second vote for us throughout all of Brandenburg and vote for Marie Schäffer in Potsdam."
Marie Schäffer won the first green direct mandate in Brandenburg's history in 2019 in Potsdam. If she manages to maintain her position, the Greens will remain in the state parliament, irrespective of their overall performance in the second votes. However, prospects are not promising. "That would be a huge surprise," postulates the "Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung."
Due to the possibility of the Greens losing their seats in parliament, a continuous three-party coalition seems unlikely. Moreover, the Left is also predicted to lose seats in the state parliament, and the FDP has minimal chances. This means there aren't many parties left, with AFD, SPD, CDU, and BSW being the potential contenders in the Brandenburg state parliament. The only possibility for an SPD-led state government is a coalition with the CDU and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance. However, if the Greens or "the Oranges" secure direct mandates, this could change the scenario.
In 2019, the BVB/Freie Wähler succeeded in securing direct mandates with Péter Vida, and they also achieved this in 2014 with the departure of Christoph Schulze in the Teltow-Fläming III constituency. This time around, the Orange party even sees potential in winning direct mandates in multiple constituencies.
Free Voters as an Alternative to BSW?
Given the recent polls before the election, a coalition between SPD, CDU, and Free Voters is not an impossible scenario. A red-black-orange coalition would be a first in German history.
Peter Vida is open to collaborating with any coalition partner except for the AfD and the Greens. A coalition with the "right-wing populist, partly right-wing extremist AfD" is unthinkable. Similarly, the BVB/Freie Wähler do not wish to form a coalition with the Greens. According to Vida on Phoenix, the disagreements in energy policy and infrastructure are the reasons. "Otherwise, we are open to discussions with democratic partners. It's clear that only with BVB/Freie Wähler in the state parliament can there be a middle force that can also facilitate a middle coalition."
If, after the election, SPD and CDU agree to this, and a two-party coalition is not viable and the only alternative to the AfD/Free Democrats is an alliance with Sahra Wagenknecht, then the "centrist populists" could have their time in the sun.
Following the state elections, if the BVB/FW manages to secure direct mandates, they could become a crucial factor in coalition negotiations. Their potential inclusion in a red-black-orange coalition would be a first in German history.
If the BVB/FW's middle-populist approach resonates with voters, they could tip the balance in favor of the SPD or the CDU, potentially preventing the AfD from gaining power or helping to form a minority government.
