UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announces a vote he's likely to lose.
The question arises: why has the Prime Minister (PM) decided to hold an election that is highly probable to lead to his defeat? For a considerable amount of time, polls have strongly favored the Labour Party, with their leader Keir Starmer seemingly set to not only gain power but also possess an impressive parliamentary majority.
The easy answer to this query is that there might not be a more opportune moment. Time and again, Sunak's actions seem to have the opposite effect, and it's not implausible that his public approval will further dwindle by the year's end.
To be fair, the past few days have been relatively positive for Sunak. The economy indeed seems to be recovering as the UK's growth forecast has been revised upward by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while inflation has finally returned to a somewhat normal level.
A major calamity has not occurred in the weeks preceding the announcement of the election. Considering his tenure, the current period is likely the most solid foundation he will ever have to launch a campaign.
One of Sunak's advisors expressed his thoughts on this matter to CNN:
"The PM inherited a number of significant challenges upon taking office - inflation, no growth, and migration. His main mission was to address them, and he's made genuine progress. The IMF upgraded the UK's growth prospects the day before the announcement and, on another day, inflation reverted to a more standard degree. Additionally, migration is now decreasing as a result of our reforms.
"So we have reason to believe that the nation is moving in the right direction, and the view was that now was the optimal moment to consult the public and say, 'Look what we've accomplished, and our plan is succeeding. Who do you believe has the plan and capability to steer this country towards a more secure future?'"
Although it wasn't a terrible time for Sunak to call the election, he had to since it's constitutionally required that he do so before the end of the year. Dilaying would've only resulted in his opposition portraying him as a scared, indecisive politician who prefers to shy away from facing the public.
Furthermore, the country's sense of fatigue regarding the Conservatives can't be denied. The last time the Party experienced any significant success was back in 2010, when David Cameron won a general election but failed to secure a majority in parliament, leading to a coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats.
While Cameron managed to maintain the coalition until the 2015 election, where he claimed a surprise victory and established the first fully Conservative government since 1997, his time in power was tumultuous. The disastrous move to hold a Brexit referendum and the inability to pass his Brexit deal due to his own party's disapproval ultimately ended his tenure.
Thus, Cameron was replaced by Theresa May in 2019, followed by Boris Johnson, who also faced countless scandals, making governing nigh-impossible. The Conservatives required a more dependable leader, which they found in Sunak.
However, the faith that his party has in Sunak is questionable. Despite what may be said by his supporters regarding his achievements in office, his dismal poll ratings cannot be denied.
For instance, his immigration policy, which would send illegal migrants to Rwanda for their asylum applications to be processed, has cost a fortune yet has only seen one individual (who even volunteered and received payment) make the journey.
The planned smoking ban, Sunak's most publicized policy initiative, met with strong opposition from his own MPs, leading to its temporary shelving due to the election.
Mistakes seem to follow Sunak, but perhaps the most damning factor is the overall belief that he's a loser. None of the details, statistics, or sound bites can change this - Sunak's aura of defeatism is overwhelming.
Despite the polls suggesting a certain outcome, Sunak's campaign will try to strike a personal note, drawing attention to the clear choice between him and Starmer. The Conservatives argue that Starmer cannot be trusted with national security, he's a shameless opportunist with no moral compass, and he lacks a proper plan.
In conclusion, the Conservatives feel this is the best chance to broadcast this message. Labour will be required to release their manifesto sooner than expected, which will be meticulously deconstructed by critics. Extending the Prime Minister's wait would've given them more time to fine-tune their affairs.
Sunak took over a chaotic situation, and it's undeniable. It's doubtful that he's cleaned up this mess enough for the Conservatives to win again. However, with the size of the challenge in front of him, it's reasonable to take advantage of this moment of positivity and stay optimistic.
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Source: edition.cnn.com
