These Pennsylvania voters illustrate Harris’ suburban challenge
“I was young when (Ronald) Reagan was around, but I really miss the ’80s,” Carty said. “I do. I’m now turning on ‘80s songs to go back to the ‘80s more than ever. I do feel like, in my lifetime, the Republican Party has changed with Donald Trump and not in a good way.”
Carty is an attorney who lives just across the Philadelphia line in suburban Montgomery County.
“It was very Republican when I was growing up,” Carty said in an interview in her Bala Cynwyd home. “And it is Democratic now.”
Carty pines for the GOP that drew her in at the age of 18: a party defined by lower taxes, less regulation, respect for the courts and the Constitution. She wishes the GOP would support reasonable gun safety measures, and let women – not politicians or judges – make difficult decisions about reproductive rights.
“A ‘Never Trump’ Republican,” Carty said. “That is how I would best label myself.”
And yet as recently as a few weeks ago, she planned to vote for Trump — and it’s not out of the question that she still might.
She backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. So why the openness to Trump this year? Carty is exasperated with Biden over inflation, immigration and more. She watched the June debate and found herself in a place for eight years she thought impossible.
“When Biden was on the ticket, I was going to vote for Trump,” Carty said. “Now it is a harder call, just because I am not a fan of Donald Trump. ... I want to give Kamala Harris a chance because she deserves that chance.”
Carty is part of a CNN project, All Over the Map, to track the 2024 campaign through the eyes and experiences of voters who are members of key voting blocs and who live in critical areas within the battleground states. Her views are telling, all the more so because they were shared by other supporters of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Reagan Republicans in our group. Harris’ ascendance on the Democratic ticket is shaking up the race in the pivotal suburbs. But the belief that she is to the left of Biden creates a quandary for Republicans who do not want Trump back in the White House but have policy and personal doubts about Harris.
“I definitely want to learn more,” Carty said. “I want to hear from Kamala Harris, what exactly have you been doing as vice president? Not what the administration has been doing in general. ... What were her goals? Did she achieve them?”
That Carty isn’t ready to commit to Harris despite her profound disagreements with Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, is a snapshot of the vice president’s suburban challenge: her path to victory is clearer if she can win over a good share of moderate Republicans who voted for Biden because they viewed him as a centrist or disagreed with Trump’s reaction to the Covid pandemic or were exhausted by his tweets and other chaos – or all of that.
Turned off by Vance but pleased with Walz
In Carty’s case, Harris may be getting an assist from Trump’s running mate.
“I’m not a cat lady,” Carty said, some toys belonging to her 5-year-old daughter stacked in the corner of the room. “I was a childless dog lady. Because I didn’t meet the right person until I was over 40 years old. And it’s by the grace of God that we naturally had a child. So I could very well be one of those childless women and I found the comment insensitive and narrow-minded,” she said, alluding to 2021 remarks from Vance.
Carty objects to Trump’s conduct on January 6, 2021, and his constant attacks on judges and courts. “We have to remember the Constitution,” she said. “Does he really promote domestic tranquility?”
And whereas Vance has been a disappointment to Carty, she’s pleased with Harris’ pick to share the ticket.
“She just picked an excellent running mate,” Carty said of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. “So I am going to listen to them. I’m going to really hear what they have to say. ... So I have a reason. Essentially not to vote for Donald Trump. He’s like the last resort.”
While Carty has her reservations, and looks forward to a Trump-Harris debate, she notices a clear shift in recent conversations with friends.
“Definitely I have more friends saying they’re leaning toward Harris,” Carty said.
‘Never Trump’ Republicans not yet sold on Harris
Cynthia Sabatini lives in Delaware County. Like Carty, she remembers when the suburbs were very different.
“My street was rock-ribbed Republican,” Sabatini said in an interview at her home in Media, Pennsylvania. “Now you have to shake a stick to find the Republican.”
The suburban shift, at the presidential level anyway, began earlier than most Republicans tend to remember. George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to carry the suburban Philadelphia collar counties in a presidential race – back in 1988. But the Democratic advantage has become more lopsided in recent years, and in 2020, was especially pronounced.
“I watch his campaign rallies,” Sabatini said of Trump. “It is all about him. It is not about the country.”
Close elections are complicated, and it is overly simplistic to focus on any one subgroup. But one of several to watch, in the battleground states decided by narrow margins, are voters who describe themselves, like Sabatini, as “never Trump.”
In 2016, she wrote in a Republican senator, Susan Collins of Maine. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania that year. In 2020, Sabatini voted for Biden because, she said, “I didn’t want to see Trump elected after the chaos of the previous four years.” Biden won Pennsylvania and the White House.
“I didn’t vote for him in 2016,” Sabatini said of Trump. “I didn’t vote for him in 2020. And I don’t plan to vote for him in 2024.”
The question is, will she vote for Harris or cast another write-in ballot?
“I promised myself I will keep an open mind,” she said.
Sabatini said she has read things that worry her about the vice president.
She mentioned immigration policy, and reports Harris is tough on her staff.
“I have some preconceived notions about her,” she said. “I want to find out for myself if the rap on her, as I read it, is correct.”
So far, Sabatini said Harris “certainly has injected enthusiasm into the Democratic base and she brings an energy that certainly Biden couldn’t bring to the campaign. ... There’s been, you know, quite a pleasant surprise.”
But Sabatini said she needs to hear more, on economic policy, on immigration and on leadership.
“I am particularly interested in the debates,” she said. “I want to see up close and personal how she answers the questions put to her.”
Joan London is, like Sabatini, inclined at the moment to write in a Republican she finds acceptable.
“If Donald Trump or JD Vance really says something so outrageously offensive beyond some of the things that he has said, that could drive me to vote for Vice President Harris,” said London, an attorney whose clients include municipal governments in Berks County, a more rural, Republican County just outside Philadelphia’s suburban collar.
“But it is highly unlikely,” London said. “She just doesn’t represent my values and my beliefs about policy.”
London became a Republican at the age of 18, inspired by Reagan. But she switched her registration to independent earlier this year, repulsed by Trump. Just before the switch, she cast a GOP primary vote for Haley.
There was “zero chance” she would vote for Trump anyway. But London said the Vance “cat lady” comments made her even more proud to have left Trump’s GOP.
She is married, no children or pets. Her home is decorated with family photos – her husband, her sister and her niece.
“I’ve led a very full life that way, and to say I don’t have a stake in the future of the country, I had some difficulty with that,” London said of Vance’s comments. “All I could think of Senator Vance is, are you going to tell Condoleezza Rice or Ann Coulter or Elizabeth Dole they are miserable cat ladies? I don’t think so.”
Resignation to voting for the Trump alternative amid a changed campaign
Michael Pesce, too, has questions and looks forward to debates and other campaign events to see how Harris steps out of Biden’s shadow and lays out her own ideas.
But Pesce is one Reagan Repubican ready to commit, because his opposition to Trump is unwavering. The Vance picked “reaffirmed” his take on Trump.
“He could have gone with somebody who was more centrist but he went with someone who is a sycophant, who is exactly like him,” Pesce said in an interview in Newtown, part of Bucks County. “Do I want JD Vance to be my president? It’s more of the same, so no.”
When Biden stepped aside, Pesce wished for “more of an open debate in the Democratic Party as to who they were going to run. But it is what it is.”
“I’m still not going to vote for Trump regardless,” Pesce said. “I’m not excited about voting for Kamala Harris, but it’s better than the alternative.”
When we first met Pesce three months ago, just after his GOP primary vote for Haley, he said he would support Biden despite reservations about some policies and about his age. After the June debate, Pesce was quick to say he thought Democrats should look for a new candidate.
“No way,” is how he puts Biden’s chances of winning Pennsylvania after his debate performance. “There would have been no way.”
Harris, he believes, has a chance and like the others we visited with, Pesce said the vibe of the campaign has changed completely.
“I think having a younger candidate is going to make a difference,” Pesce said. “I think the energy she’s brought to the campaign, the fact that she’s a woman and women’s rights are going to be a big deal here in Pennsylvania. And I think that’s kind of where Pennsylvania will go.”
- Carty expressed her disapproval towards the changes in the Republican Party that she perceives as unfavorable since Donald Trump's rise, stating, "I wish the GOP would support reasonable gun safety measures, and let women – not politicians or judges – make difficult decisions about reproductive rights."
- Despite her disagreements with both Trump and his vice presidential candidate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Carty acknowledged the positive impact that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris' running mate, has had on her, saying, "She just picked an excellent running mate. So I am going to listen to them. I’m going to really hear what they have to say."
