Study: Federal government raises electric car target by 40 percent
The federal government is ambitious: At least 15 million electric cars are to be driving on German streets by 2030. However, according to a study, the traffic light coalition is missing this target by a wide margin - and needs to counter it. Ironically, China would be pleased with a possible solution.
The federal government's goal of bringing at least 15 million electric vehicles onto German roads by 2030 will be significantly missed - by six million vehicles. This is the result of a study by the think tank Agora Verkehrswende and the consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which was commissioned by the "Handelsblatt".
Doubts about the self-set target of the traffic light coalition have existed for some time - this was evident, for example, at the electric car summit at the Chancellery in November 2023. At that time, automotive expert Stefan Bratzel presented his prognosis that a maximum of eight million electric vehicles could be expected in Germany by 2030. "We still assume seven to eight million electric vehicles by 2030," Bratzel, professor at the Center of Automotive Management at the University of Applied Sciences Bergisch Gladbach, still emphasizes today.
However, Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing did not let this skepticism deter him from reaffirming the federal government's target in April of this year. According to the now published study, the current government course and this target do not fit together at all. "At some point, it's no longer mathematically possible to achieve it," Christian Hochfeld of Agora Verkehrswende told the "Handelsblatt". The value predicted in the study is therefore 40 percent lower: instead of 15, only 9 million electric vehicles will be driving on German roads by 2030.
Traffic light coalition surprisingly scraps purchase premium
The result of the electric car summit in November last year was to expand the charging infrastructure more quickly and reduce the purchase costs. All the more surprising was the decision of the traffic light coalition to scrap the state subsidy for the purchase of an electric car shortly afterwards. "That doesn't fit: on the one hand, keeping the target high, on the other hand, abolishing measures that contribute to its achievement," said Agora expert Hochfeld. The discounts subsequently offered by providers could not turn the tide. The sale of electric vehicles has since collapsed significantly.
However, there is still hope according to the study to at least approach the target. One of the possible measures, however, may cause discomfort for the federal government.
For example, the motor vehicle tax, which is due upon first registration, could be oriented more strongly towards the CO2 emissions of the vehicles. The costs for electric vehicles would then be lower than for combustion engines. Furthermore, the authors recommend introducing quotas for manufacturers and commercial fleets to increase the market share of electric vehicles. This would result in an additional 4.2 million new registrations of electric vehicles by 2030. A more quickly expanded charging infrastructure would bring another 300,000 electric vehicles, according to the study.
China - competitor or helper in achieving the target?
However, the federal government would still not reach the 15 million electrically driven vehicles. Here, the least popular proposal comes into play: the stronger involvement of Chinese manufacturers. However, the EU Commission had imposed tariffs on electric vehicles from China at the beginning of July. It accuses Beijing of providing its own manufacturers with unfair competitive advantages through high subsidies. The tariffs are currently not permanent. A decision on whether they will be extended - up to five years - is to be made within four months. If the decision were to fall in the fall, this proposal of the study authors would virtually disappear.
The EU's customs decision has already been criticized by the federal government. There is great fear that China will respond with countermeasures that will affect German car manufacturers. The authors share this view. "Higher import tariffs will make vehicles from Chinese manufacturers more expensive for customers in Germany in principle," said Hochfeld of Agora Verkehrswende. This would eliminate attractive offers as an alternative to the combustion engine, "which are currently being offered by Chinese manufacturers in the price-sensitive vehicle segments, where German and European manufacturers have a low offering."
"Doing nothing is more expensive"
However, reaching the 2030 electric vehicle target will be costly: The study estimates the total economic financing requirement at 45 to 65 billion euros. This includes costs for additional purchase incentives, compensation for additional costs, and charging infrastructure. The impact on the state, car manufacturers, and consumers will depend on the measures taken by the traffic light coalition.
However, this would still be the lesser evil, according to Albert Waas of BCG, co-author of the study. "Doing nothing would ultimately be more expensive," he told the Handelsblatt: "It will become expensive in a different way. Doing nothing is the worst option because it puts the competitiveness of our automotive industry at risk." This would have a lasting impact on the profits of automotive manufacturers, and thus on one of Germany's most important economic sectors.
In addition, there would be further costs if Germany fails to meet its national climate targets at EU level. The transport sector is subject to the European climate protection regulation "Effort Sharing Regulation" (ESR) - i.e. binding reduction targets. Experts fear that payments in the double-digit billion range could become due if Germany fails to meet its target.
The study suggests that the traffic light coalition's goal of achieving 15 million electric vehicles on German roads by 2030 is unlikely, with a predicted figure of only 9 million instead. The European Union Commission, who imposed tariffs on electric vehicles from China due to perceived competitive advantages, is a potential obstacle to the federal government's consideration of involving Chinese manufacturers to reach the target.
The Commission's tariffs have been criticized by the federal government, with concerns about potential retaliation from China affecting German car manufacturers. Agora Verkehrswende expert Christian Hochfeld shares this view, stating that higher import tariffs would make electric vehicles from Chinese manufacturers more expensive for German customers, eliminating attractive alternatives to combustion engines in price-sensitive car segments.
