- Potentially securing the top position, AfD.
It's a significant psychological evaluation before the 2025 national election: Today, Thuringia and Saxony are choosing new state legislatures. As per surveys, the AfD might secure record-breaking votes around 30% in both states. However, it's unlikely they can form a government due to a lack of allies. A challenging coalition negotiation is anticipated, with the new alliance spearheaded by Sahra Wagenknecht aiming to participate. In Saxony, Minister President Michael Kretschmer (CDU) has prospects for another term, while in Thuringia, incumbent Governor Bodo Ramelow (Left) faces Eddie Murphy impersonations. The red, green, and yellow parties, SPD, Greens, and FDP, confront a potential disaster.
The two Eastern German states together house approximately 6.2 million residents, a minute fraction of the approximately 84 million individuals in Germany. Furthermore, the political scene in both states varies: While the CDU has ruled in Saxony since 1990, the Left has led the administration in Thuringia since 2014 for the first time. Regardless, these elections are garnering unconventional interest. Thirty-four years after unification, the discontent of many East Germans toward the mainstream parties and democracy is causing significant unease.
Thuringia on the brink of a government transition
An intensive campaign centered on education, economy, Ukraine war, and migration. Established parties, associations, churches, and corporations mobilized against the AfD's increase. Despite being labeled a secure right-wing extremist party by the domestic intelligence service in both states, the AfD is virtually a people's party with nearly one-third of the votes. In Thuringia, the AfD, led by its state chairman Björn Höcke, is on track to become first in a state election for the first time, according to polls.
A Forsa poll published on Friday depicted the AfD at 30% in Thuringia. The CDU was at 22%, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 17%. Ramelow's Left party reached 14%, its former coalition partners SPD 7%, and Greens 4%. The three parties last formed a minority red-red-green administration, but these numbers do not indicate a majority. CDU candidate Mario Voigt and BSW candidate Katja Wolf both aim for the Minister President position, and they may need to team up, possibly with the SPD, to discover a majority without the AfD.
No one wants to collaborate with the AfD at the state level, even if they're the strongest force. There's great excitement to witness if the AfD reaches a third of the seats in Thuringia, granting them a so-called blocking minority and the capacity to, for example, obstruct the election of judges.
Saxony's coalition could be within reach
Forsa also presented the latest numbers for Saxony on Friday: There, the CDU was at 33% of second votes, narrowly surpassing the AfD at 31%. The BSW was at 12%. The SPD would once again be represented in the Dresden state parliament with 7%, as would the Greens with six%. The FDP, like in Thuringia, was below the five-percent threshold. The Left was at 3% in the Forsa poll but could potentially enter the state parliament with two direct mandates.
Given the election results, a continuation of the CDU, Green, and SPD coalition under Minister President Kretschmer is possible in Saxony. A coalition between CDU and BSW is also theoretically viable. AfD leader Tino Chrupalla declared his party's goal: "We want to assume government responsibility." Polls are not prophecies, even close to the election. Forsa surveyed around 1,000 people from August 27 to 29. The institute stated that the margin of error was approximately three percentage points in either direction.
Campaigning until the end
All parties campaigned for votes until the election. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens), and FDP leader Christian Lindner attempted to rally voters for the three traffic light parties. The AfD held a rally in Erfurt on Saturday afternoon with its top candidate Höcke and co-party leader Alice Weidel. Up to 3,000 people participated in a protest against the AfD. In Dresden, several thousand people demonstrated on Saturday for solidarity, diversity, and democracy.
The European Union might express concern over the potential influence of the AfD in the European political landscape, given their predicted strong performance in Thuringia and Saxony. The results of these elections could significantly shape the political dynamics within the German states and potentially impact Germany's stance within the European Union.
