Perspective: The presidential election isn't unfolding how I had anticipated.
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Admittedly, things weren't going as I had expected. Trump is now leading in almost all the swing states, and these numbers hold some concerning details. As someone concerned about the possibility of another Trump term, it's essential to face reality. While polls may not always be accurate, they generally underestimate Trump's support, not overestimate it. It's hard to imagine many secret Biden supporters out there.
The economy has been on the mend for more than two years now, with unemployment reaching a 54-year low in 2023 and only slightly increasing since then. However, Biden isn't gaining much credit for it. On the question of who voters trust more to handle the economy, Trump is ahead by 22 points, according to an NBC poll from January. This marks a 15-point increase compared to the same poll in 2020. Perhaps it's because inflation is a prevalent problem, impacting everyone daily. Maybe it's due to how people view the candidates overall. Regardless, this is a surprising turn of events amidst a consistent stream of good economic news.
On cultural issues, Biden and the Democrats gain support from the opposition to the Republican stance on abortion. But when it comes to immigration, Biden is 35 points behind Trump in terms of who would handle it better. It's even possible that abortion might not be as significant an issue in a presidential race, considering that overturning Roe v. Wade shifted the focus to state governments rather than the federal government.
What's concerning for Democrats is the growing divide within the party over the Israel-Hamas war. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders said the surfacing of pro-Palestinian protests could become "Biden's Vietnam." While the comparison is quite a stretch—the U.S. had hundreds of thousands of troops in Vietnam, with more being enlisted every week—it's undeniable that the party appears more split than it has in years. With just 33% of Americans approving of Biden's handling of the conflict, some people think he's too soft, while others believe he's too harsh on Israel.
In contrast, Republicans appear to be gathering behind Trump. The opposition he faced in the primaries seems to have dissipated. And the trials against him keep him in the public eye, infuriating his base who see him as a martyr. They might even gain sympathy among other people who perceive these trials as politically motivated. (I believe this was true; I doubt indictments would have been brought against someone whose name wasn't Donald Trump.) Over half of Americans doubt Trump will receive a fair trial, according to a CNN poll. (Trump has maintained his innocence in all cases.)
And there are still other third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Jill Stein, who could potentially draw votes from Biden.
Things could shift. Polls suggest that if Trump were convicted of a felony, voters might swing in favour of Biden. The administration might even manage to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza, paving the way for a broader political settlement offering Palestinians political rights and Israel diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. Trump could cause quite a stir with a new scandal. But right now, trending patterns don't favour Biden. He needs to take immediate action and do something remarkable to regain the lead—like implementing a more compassionate asylum policy, for instance—and reverse these numbers.
The aspect that bothers me the most is the doubt surrounding Biden's competency. In 2020, he led Trump by nine points, but Trump now holds a 16-point lead in 2024. This 25-point shift could signify people's perception that Biden's age is affecting his ability to lead. There's little Biden can do to change this perception.
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Despite my initial concerns, the public seems to have different opinions on the candidates' abilities to handle the economy and immigration. While Biden struggles to gain credit for the economic improvements, Trump maintains a lead in economic trust and immigration management, according to the polls.
Furthermore, the political landscape is diverse, with various voices expressing their opinions on cultural issues, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and even potential third-party candidates that could influence the election outcome.
Source: edition.cnn.com
