Perspective: Russia might not win this conflict.

Perspective: Russia may succumb in this conflict

Overseas, this is an attempt at intimidation. The idea is to make us believe that Russia cannot be defeated.

During Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many assumed it would only take a few days for Ukraine to fall to the invaders. Even now, over two years later, there are still those who believe Russia will eventually emerge victorious. These individuals are mostly Russian sympathizers in the U.S. Congress and Senate.

The truth is, Russia can lose. And it should lose, for the sake of the world, and Russia itself.

The Red Army was formidable, but it was not invincible. In fact, it lost two of its most significant foreign conflicts. First, it was defeated by Poland in 1920. In 1945, the Red Army defeated Nazi Germany, but only after being on the verge of collapse in 1941. The victory in 1945 was also thanks to the help of the United States in the form of economic assistance. The Soviets had problems in Afghanistan as well, leading to their eventual withdrawal.

The Russian army of today is not the same as the Red Army, and Russia is no longer the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union relied heavily on resources and soldiers from Ukraine during the fight against Germany. When the Red Army took huge losses during WWII, a large portion of those casualties were Ukrainians fighting for the Soviet Union.

Today, Russia is not fighting alongside Ukraine but against it. This is an act of aggression against a sovereign nation. And without the support of the United States, which provided aid to the Red Army during WWII, it's difficult to see how Russia could even hope to win.

During the past six months, Russia's minor victories have happened when the US was delaying aid to Ukraine rather than providing it.

Russia has been around since 1991, and like previous leaders before him, Putin rules by exploiting nostalgia for the Soviet past. Like the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire before it, Russia has also lost wars. In the first half of the 19th century, Russia lost the Crimean War, in the early 20th century, it lost the Russo-Japanese War, and in the early 20th century, it lost the First World War. In none of those cases could Russia maintain a military presence for more than three years.

Americans fear the prospect of a Russian defeat due to an inability to imagine what could come next. There's even a feeling among some supporters of Ukraine that the best solution is a tie.

Russian soldiers patrol Mariupol's drama theater, southeastern Ukraine, in March 2022.

This thinking is unrealistic, and somewhat presumptuous. No one can control the outcome of a war, and past attempts at influencing Russia have shown that we do not possess the power to control their actions. Russia and Ukraine are both striving for victory, and there are two possibilities: who will win and with what consequences?

If Russia wins, the consequences would be disastrous: the potential for a broader war in Europe, a greater likelihood of Chinese aggression in the Pacific, weakening the international legal order, the spread of nuclear weapons, and a loss of faith in democracy.

Defeat for Russia is a common occurrence in their history. Losses have led to reflection and reform, including the end of serfdom in the 19th century, elections during the Russian Empire, and the eventual end of the Cold War.

Ukraine also commemorates the end of WWII on May 8th, in contrast to Russia's May 9th. Ukrainians endured more hardships under German occupation and suffered a significantly higher number of casualties on the battlefield. They have every right to remember and interpret the victory as they see fit.

Ukraine's victory over Russia could be a historical opportunity for Russia to become a post-imperial country, one where meaningful reform is possible, and where Russians' rights would be protected by law. A defeated Russia means an end to senseless loss of life in Ukraine, and a chance for Russia to join the ranks of nations that have abandoned their imperial ambitions and opted for democracy.

Summary:

Russia is trying to project an image of being unbeatable in the current conflict with Ukraine, but the reality is that it has lost many wars in its history and has met with defeat. Russia could lose this war, leading to potential reform and a move away from its imperialist past. Both nations are fighting to win, and the consequences of their victories will have far-reaching implications.

Like Ukrainians, we can conclude that present-day Russia is comparable to Nazi Germany in 1945, a fascist imperialist force that needs to be vanquished. Previously, fascism had fallen because of a unified alliance that leveraged its economic prowess. Similarly, the same principle applies now.