Opinion: Trump to increase your grocery expenditure
Stephen Craven
Food prices in the US have considerably surged since before the Covid-19 pandemic, rising by a whopping 25% between 2019 and 2023. And the cost of dining out has witnessed a more rapid spike. Despite wage growth outpacing inflation, people shopping at Kroger or Wendy's are still experiencing sticker shock.
The American public is desperate for relief, but former President Donald Trump and his policies do not provide the solution. In fact, Trump's proposed tariffs would further aggravate the situation. He's advocated a minimal 10% tariff on all imported products. Given that the US imports 15% of its food supply, including nearly all coffee and cacao, 60% of fresh fruit, and nearly 40% of fresh vegetables, a 10% tariff would significantly hike the costs of these key imports.
Moreover, importers are bound to pass on these costs to customers unless they have a reason to absorb them. Domestic suppliers are unlikely to undercut the prices of their imported counterparts in the short term, considering America's limited coffee farms produce barely enough coffee to meet the country's demand. Therefore, it's likely that consumers will have to bear the brunt of the higher prices.
If Trump becomes president, a trip to the grocery store, candy store, or coffee shop would likely result in a larger bill. Check the origin of any product. If it's of foreign origin, its price is likely to increase.
Sadly, President Joe Biden has maintained many of the inflationary tariffs on Chinese imports that Trump established during his initial term. While Biden's reasoning for keeping these tariffs—such as China's "dumping," or exporting goods at lower prices than it charges itself, as well as national security concerns—seems valid, the fact remains that these tariffs raise the price you pay.
Contrarily, Trump's justification for his broader tariffs is that they would protect American producers and companies. But American farmers don't need protection, and the resulting trade war would significantly harm their economic prospects. The American agricultural industry is the best in the world, exporting more food than any other country. It produces more food than all but China and India, nations with more than four times our population. American farms are likely some of the most technologically advanced in the world. They excel when they compete.
However, if they are pitted against other countries that impose retaliatory tariffs on American products, the situation could become disastrous. China is adept at retaliating; it would place tariffs on goods that hurt American producers the most. According to the Congressional Research Service, the soybean, cotton, sorghum, and pork industries, among others, experienced severe losses due to China's retaliatory tariffs. Resentment among farmers towards the trade wars of the Trump administration is quite evident.
Some people might hate Trump's proposed immigration policies even more. Trump promises to impose mass deportations, targeting individuals without documentation. Numerous arguments revolve around the moral, economic, and security aspects of this policy, but there's no dispute that such deportations would considerably raise the price of food.
The significant factor affecting the price of food is the cost of labor, especially given the workforce shortage in this industry. On average, labor accounts for about 15% (and increasing) of a farmer's expenses. Agricultural production, similar to most sectors, is grappling with a severe labor deficit. As per the World Wildlife Fund, an estimated 10 million tons of unharvested food are lost each year due to labor shortages and other challenges. The current low unemployment rate is partly to blame.
Now, consider the repercussions of Trump's administration attempting to deport the estimated 44% of the US farm workforce that's undocumented. Such expulsions would lead to a crop crisis, and farmers' labor costs would skyrocket. The price of food would significantly soar.
As for eating out, expenses would skyrocket as well. Roughly 10% of the restaurant and hospitality workforce is believed to be undocumented. Deporting these workers would dramatically raise costs.
One might argue that critical sectors should not rely on undocumented workers. However, it's hard to deny that they currently provide essential workforce in many industries. The elimination of these workers would lead to significantly increased prices.
I have just touched on a few direct ways Trump's policies would inflict chaos on your food bill, but several of his proposals would exacerbate inflation to an even greater extent.
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- Many Americans share the opinion that Trump's proposed tariffs on imported products would further increase their grocery expenditure, given that the US relies heavily on imports for key food items such as coffee, cacao, fruits, and vegetables.
- The potential deportation of undocumented workers, a major part of the US farm workforce, as proposed by Trump, could significantly increase food prices due to the ensuing labor shortage and resulting crop crisis.
Source: edition.cnn.com
