Opinion: Imprisoning Trump for breaking the gag rule might inadvertently benefit him.
A $10,000 fine hasn't deterred Trump from repeatedly disregarding the court-imposed gag order in his case, with the former president and possible Republican nominee held in contempt for the 10th time on Monday. Trump is forbidden from making personal attacks on witnesses, prosecutors, jurors, and court officials and their families. The authorities haven't yet requested a prison sentence for Trump's transgressions.
However, the threat of jail time might not be effective either, as Trump might think it would be a demonstration of an unbalanced legal system, as he stated on the 12th day of his trial for falsifying business records in a hush money scheme to boost his 2016 election chances. "Frankly, our Constitution is more crucial than getting locked up," Trump said.
If Trump is jailed, it would be the first time he's been imprisoned due to a criminal case that some experts consider the weakest of the four against him.
Judge Juan Manuel Merchan, it seems, is apprehensive about imprisoning Trump, aware of the significance of his decision and the potential consequences. During the trial, Merchan said, "It's important you understand, Mr. Trump, the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You're the former president of the United States, and there's a possibility you might be the next one as well." The gravity of his ruling is not lost on him, but he reminds himself that he has a job to do.
Trump's previous legal setbacks haven't affected his competitiveness in the general election. The outcome of his trial on falsifying business records hasn't adversely affected him in the polls against Biden. A CNN poll conducted in April by SSRS found that the public is divided over whether Trump is being treated more harshly or lightly than other defendants. However, approximately 75% of voters supporting Trump say they'll continue backing him, even if he's convicted of a crime. (Trump has pleaded not guilty, maintaining his innocence in all four cases against him.)
In this specific case, Trump could be jailed for voicing opinions during the trial about accusations some view as a misdemeanor. Accusers like former Trump attorney Michael Cohen have received significant media attention. One of Trump's violations involved sharing a link to a New York Post article by George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley questioning Cohen's credibility regarding past perjury.
Evaluations of Cohen's offenses for which he pleaded guilty might seem like reasonable debate rather than an effort to intimidate a witness. His supporters could perceive a double standard in this situation.
All these developments take place amid a background of Trump attributing his legal woes to his political adversaries, namely President Joe Biden and the Democrats. Trump may exaggerate, but Democrats risk alienating voters by engaging in these prosecutions.
The truth is that Trump is the only high-profile politician to face two impeachments, four indictments, and a civil fraud trial. Some of his popularity comes from the perception that the establishment wouldn't allow for his reelection. Jailing him before a conviction could reinforce these ideas.
On the other hand, there are risks for Trump. The spectacle of a presidential candidate in jail could make all the charges against him appear more real. Although it's hard to predict how voters will react, a tight race for the presidency makes even a minor shift significant.
Voters may feel that jailing a former president is not the treatment they want for presidential candidates. Undoubtedly, this case could offer Trump a chance to turn his momentary incarceration into an advantage.
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Source: edition.cnn.com
