'Nobody advances without the others.' Potential US agreement would connect the fates of Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Gaza.
A defensive pact would cement the 70-year partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United States, drawing them even closer as American rivals such as Iran, Russia, and China attempt to increase their influence in the Middle East. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has long sought relations with Saudi Arabia, the home of Islam's most sacred sites, as this could set off a chain reaction throughout the broader Muslim world.
At present, the United States is negotiating a single massive agreement consisting of three separate components. The first part involves a bundle of agreements between the US and Saudi Arabia. The second part deals with the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The third part outlines a pathway to a Palestinian state.
"All of these components are linked together. None can move forward without the others," said Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, on a recent Thursday.
To achieve peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel, there must be a pathway for a Palestinian state and tranquility in Gaza, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at an economic conference in Riyadh. "The work that Saudi Arabia and the United States have been doing together regarding our own agreements is potentially very close to being finalized, but in order to advance with normalization, two things will be necessary: calm in Gaza and a trustworthy pathway to a Palestinian state," he said during a panel discussion.
During the summit, Blinken met with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia to discuss the pact. The Saudi-US accord is expected to be a comprehensive set of assurances encompassing security, economic, and technological guarantees, in addition to support for Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program.
As Israel and Saudi Arabia's normalization deal may be modeled after the Abraham Accords, which were signed in 2020 and saw four Arab states recognize Israel while deferring the demand for an independent Palestinian state as a precondition for their acknowledgment of Israel, MBS had earlier called the potential deal "the greatest historical agreement since the Cold War."
Regarding the Accords, Netanyahu stated in 2021 that they allowed Israel to forgo territorial concessions in pursuit of peace, effectively transforming Israel's relations with these countries from the "territories for peace" approach to "peace for peace." The Biden administration has since made Israel-Saudi normalization a centerpiece of its Middle East policy.
Despite on-going conversations in 2023, the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia still worked on the pact when Blinken was supposed to fly to Riyadh on October 10 last year to address its details. However, the visit was postponed due to an Israeli attack on Gaza, which left the enclave in tatters and killed over 34,000 Palestinians, potentially altering Saudi Arabia's plans, according to analysts.
Now, Israel's acceptance of an "irreversible" track to a Palestinian state is deemed crucial for the vital element of normalization within the larger agreement.
"We have a clear understanding of what needs to take place regarding the Palestinian issue...an irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state," said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan during a World Economic Forum panel, failing to mention normalization with Israel.
Despite Netanyahu's rejection of a Palestinian state on the grounds that it would endanger Israel's security, he is firm in his decision to continue the Gaza war until Hamas is eradicated.
These stumbling blocks might lead Saudi Arabia to pursue the deal minus the normalization aspect, analysts predict. But that approach would face significant obstacles. An agreement committing the United States to Saudi Arabia's security while excluding the normalization component is thought to be improbable, according to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
"If there is a mutual defense agreement negotiated in the form of a treaty, it needs 67 votes in the Senate to be binding. Without normalizing the Israeli-Saudi relationship and ensuring Israel's security concerns pertaining to the Palestinian issue, there would be minimal votes for a mutual defense agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia," he said in response to news of Saudi Arabia's supposed "plan B."
Experts also point out that Biden might be able to bypass congressional approval for the bilateral deal by formulating it as an adaptation of the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement he signed with Bahrain in September 2023.
"There is an alternative pathway, modeled after the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement the Biden administration signed with Bahrain in September of 2023," said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow and Director for Strategic Outreach at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC. "The text of that pact explicitly states that other parties may be invited to join," he said.
Notwithstanding, there has yet to be any signs of the Biden administration choosing to circumvent Congress to expedite the Saudi Arabia-US agreement's approval.
If successful, Saudi Arabia's bilateral agreement with the United States would signify a major triumph, marking the end of the era when Biden endeavored to marginalize MBS by branding his nation a global pariah following the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi intelligence officials in Turkey.
Moreover, this pact would safeguard American primacy in the Middle East for generations, ultimately thwarting the rising threat posed by both China and Russia, according to Maksad.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is determined to fortify the kingdom's defenses and broaden the Saudi economy beyond hydrocarbons through his bold economic plan known as Vision 2030. The kingdom has a fledgling civilian nuclear program that he aims to expand with American backing.
Karen Young, a senior research scholar from Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, stated, "Saudi Arabia wants to make a deal with the United States, and this might be the opportune moment during the Biden administration to assist with certain issues passing through Congress."
One potential hurdle in approving a Saudi-US nuclear partnership is the US's opposition to local uranium enrichment, a vital component for nuclear power. Saudi Arabia has reasserted its desire to refine uranium at home, which would be a first for an Arab nation. In contrast, neighboring United Arab Emirates relies on purchased enriched uranium to fuel its nuclear power plants.
On Wednesday, Democratic Senator Edward J. Markey, co-chair of the Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group, urged the Biden administration to ensure that the Saudis promise not to enrich or reprocess nuclear materials. MBS reportedly declared in the past that Saudi Arabia would develop a nuclear weapon if Iran did so as well.
"The road toward Middle Eastern peace should not include a Saudi Arabia equipped with a nuclear arsenal, which would hinder the interests of the US, allies, and partners in the region," Sen. Markey wrote in his letter.
This Saudi-US pact would demand both nations to collaborate in deterring and responding to external aggression, however, it wouldn't form a treaty alliance requiring Senate approval.
"It's frequently referred to as Article 4.5, missing the mark of a treaty alliance needing Senate approval but providing for a written pledge of mutual defense," Maksad clarified, in reference to NATO's Article 5, which obligates all member states to come to the aid of any nation facing attack.
"There will still be space for a multilateral security agreement incorporating Israel, together with Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and other parties, once suitable political conditions permit....the decision will be Israel's, when it's prepared to present a proposal that advances the ball forward towards a two-state solution with the Palestinians," Maksad added.
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Source: edition.cnn.com
