- More deterrence against Russia: the return of the arms race?
The U.S. seeks Germany's approval to station land-based cruise missiles and longer-range rockets in Germany for the first time in decades. Can this initiative enhance deterrence against Russia? Less than a month after the announcement, experts provide details and background in this Q&A:
What's the plan?
In a brief statement at the NATO summit in Washington on July 10, the U.S. and German governments announced that long-range U.S. weapons systems would be stationed in Germany by 2026. These conventional units, which will include SM-6, Tomahawks, and currently under-development hypersonic weapons, will have significantly greater range than existing land-based systems in Europe.
The U.S. described this as a contribution to European deterrence and a demonstration of U.S. commitment to NATO. Few details were provided at the time.
What weapons are coming to Germany?
Tomahawks are cruise missiles with a range of over 2,000 kilometers, capable of striking targets in Russia. Experts say they carry a 450-kilogram conventional warhead and have an accuracy of about ten meters.
SM-6s are multi-purpose missiles that can intercept other missiles, as well as target ships and, in a modified version, ground targets. Both will be launched in Germany from a new mobile system called Typhon in case of an emergency.
What about the new hypersonic weapons?
The new U.S. hypersonic weapon ("Long Range Hypersonic Weapon") is nearing completion, according to German military expert and retired brigadier general Heinrich Fischer. It flies at five times the speed of sound and has a range of over 2,500 kilometers, he writes in the August issue of "European Security & Technology".
When were there last medium-range missiles in Germany?
That was during the Cold War. In response to the threat from Soviet SS20 medium-range missiles, NATO adopted the "Dual Track" decision in 1979, which called for the deployment of nuclear-tipped U.S. Pershing II missiles and cruise missiles in Europe, while also initiating arms control talks with the Soviet Union. These talks ended with the INF Treaty.
What did the INF Treaty cover?
Signed in 1987 by the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the INF Treaty required the elimination of all land-based ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 1,000 kilometers, and between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers. The U.S. withdrew from the treaty in 2019, citing Russia's development and deployment of the 9M729 (NATO code: SSC-8) medium-range cruise missile system, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Is the deployment of U.S. weapons in Germany a response to the 9M729?
At least in part. Other reasons cited include the deployment of Iskander missiles, capable of carrying atomic warheads, in the Kaliningrad exclave, and the relocation of Russian combat jets equipped with air-to-ground hypersonic Kinzhal missiles to the same region.
According to the German Ministry of Defense, US weapons are primarily intended to protect Germany through deterrence. The political director, Jasper Wieck, stated in a YouTube video that the goal is to make a potential aggressor understand that an attack would be more harmful than beneficial. In a crisis, these weapons could potentially neutralize missile launchers deep within Russian territory.
Are there nuclear warheads for the Tomahawks as well?
Hans Kristensen, an atomic weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists, clearly answers no. He explains that the nuclear-capable version (Block II, TLAM-N) has been decommissioned and is no longer in the arsenal. The nuclear warheads of the W80-0 type were decommissioned in 2010 and destroyed in 2012.
Kristensen also emphasizes that there are no plans to develop nuclear warheads for the weapons intended for Germany. However, the West has apparently decided that it needs more conventional firepower with medium and long-range capabilities to counter a possible Russian attack on NATO.
Is a new arms race and a new Cold War beginning?
From Kristensen's perspective, it's difficult to compare today's situation with the Cold War. However, he acknowledges that the announced deployment of long-range missile systems in Europe is a significant step in the escalating military competition between Russia and NATO.
"With the demise of the INF Treaty, both sides are free to deploy whatever they want, and the only question is how strong the action-reaction dynamic will be," he says to the German Press Agency. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the increasing military buildup and saber-rattling on both sides have set the stage for an even deeper military rivalry.
How many Tomahawks will be deployed to Germany, and where?
The German Armed Forces only state that much planning and organization still needs to be done by 2026, so it cannot be said yet how many Tomahawks will be stationed where in Germany.
Will long-range US weapons also be stationed in other European countries?
There have been no announcements to that effect so far. A possible reason could be that deployment further east would constitute an additional provocation to Russia. The German Armed Forces explain that Germany is particularly suitable for stationing due to its central location in Western Europe.
Kristensen, the atomic weapons expert, finds it noteworthy that the buildup in Germany was announced bilaterally rather than by NATO. This suggests that it was difficult to reach a NATO consensus on the deployment, he says.
Does the German Bundestag need to be involved in the deployment decision?
The planned deployment has sparked concerns among some members of the German Chancellor's party, the SPD. The parliamentary group leader, Rolf Mützenich, warned of the risk of military escalation. In contrast, SPD Defense Minister Boris Pistorius emphasizes the importance of credible deterrence for Germany's own security. He states that the Bundestag can debate the issue, but it does not need to be consulted before the government's decision.
What happens next?
For Kristensen, the prognosis is clear: "The US is reacting to Russian missiles with INF range and Russia's war in Ukraine, and Russia will likely react to the US decision," he says. "That's the dynamic that's now fully underway and will likely continue with the deepening political and military rivalry between the two sides."
Despite the U.S.'s assertions of enhancing deterrence, some experts express concerns about the potential escalation of discouragement from Russia. The deployment of these weapons systems might exacerbate tensions and provoke an unfavorable response from Moscow.
The announcement of the deployment has sparked debates within Germany, as some members of the Chancellor's party express concerns about the risk of military escalation. However, the Defense Minister emphasizes the necessity of maintaining credible deterrence for Germany's security.
