Podcast 'The Situation - international' - Mölling: Ukraine prepares for negotiations with Kursk
Ukraine attempts to improve its position for potential peace talks by advancing into Russian territory, according to military expert Christian Mölling. In a Friday interview on the Der Spiegel podcast "The Situation - International", Mölling said that the incursion into the Russian region of Kursk has had a "huge positive effect" for Ukraine, both in communication and politically.
The research director of the German Society for Foreign Policy emphasized the symbolic impact of the action, stating that it shows the operational capability of the armed forces to both its own population and its allies. While Ukraine cannot improve its difficult situation on the front lines in the Donbass, it can at least create a "moment of attention". According to Mölling's assessment, the Ukrainian leadership is already preparing for a situation where the pressure to start peace talks increases, and the currently targeted Russian region could serve as a "trump card".
Ukrainians brace for forced negotiations
The expert pointed out that US support will not be the same as it has been in the current war, regardless of who wins the presidential election in November. Meanwhile, France is hamstrung by internal political disputes, and Germany faces daily threats of the collapse of the ruling coalition. "Ukraine sees that the options are not getting better," Mölling said, adding that this contributes to the country's need to prepare for negotiations.
In this context, Mölling also mentioned Ukrainian activities on the Crimean Peninsula, where life for Russians is becoming increasingly difficult. The Black Sea Fleet has been pushed back, and Russian naval aviation has also suffered setbacks.
Offensive not yet a threat to Putin's regime
In Mölling's analysis, the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region does not currently pose a threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime. He said, "It will only become critical for Putin if it has an impact in major urban centers, which has not happened yet." Whether the war in its own country will lead to a wave of solidarity with the Moscow government remains to be seen.
Mölling does not expect Ukraine to wage war in neighboring countries using the same methods as Russian forces on their own territory. While war crimes occur on both sides, they are not part of Ukraine's strategy, unlike in Russia. Moreover, they would be exploited by the Moscow leadership and have consequences for Ukraine's Western allies.
Despite facing challenges from internal political disputes in France and potential coalition collapses in Germany, Ukraine continues to leverage its actions, such as the incursion into the Russian region of Kursk, to maintain a strong negotiating position. This strategic move has also highlighted the capabilities of its armed forces to other nations, including its allies, and has led to a "moment of attention" that could prove beneficial during potential peace talks. Meanwhile, other fish in the region, like the Black Sea Fleet, have been pushed back, and Russian naval aviation has suffered setbacks.
