Macron must find a new prime minister quickly
Olympia provides a distraction from the deep government crisis that French President Macron finds himself in. It is still unclear what the future coalition will look like, let alone who will lead it. However, time is running out to prevent further chaos.
Over a month has passed since France's early parliamentary election, but what a new government might look like remains unclear. President Emmanuel Macron has been playing for time, waiting for the Olympics to end. Will France now get a new prime minister? At least the pressure on Macron is likely to increase from all sides to prevent the country from political gridlock.
But let's start from the beginning: Contrary to expectations, it was not the right-wing National Rally around Marine Le Pen, but the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire that won the French National Assembly election in early July. Macron's centrist forces came in second.
The voters have presented the MPs with a challenge, as neither camp has an absolute majority. This is a tricky situation, as large compromises and coalitions are rather unusual in French politics.
Adding to this is the fact that interpretations of the election results differ significantly. The left sees a clear mandate for government and is upset with President Macron for not appointing the proposed prime minister, Lucie Castets. The president, however, suggests that the voters want cross-party cooperation, and therefore his liberal Renaissance party should be part of the government coalition.
Next prime minister may not be from Macron's ranks
Is Macron, who initiated the early parliamentary election without a real need and lost it badly, simply a poor loser who doesn't want to give up power? Or is he a realist? Is he, unlike French conventions, seeking a possible grand coalition to escape the political dead end?
In any case, voices from Macron's camp are increasing, explaining where there are overlaps with the conservatives, socialists, greens, and communists, whom they are trying to extract from their alliance with the left party La France Insoumise.
The junior minister for agriculture, Agnes Pannier-Runacher, also calls for concessions from her own camp. And the junior minister for equality, Aurore Bergé, even admits: "We must face the facts of the parliamentary election results and show a lot of humility. This also means that the next prime minister cannot come from our ranks."
Parties finding common ground extremely difficult
Even a group of experts who have worked on the programs of the left alliance, the center, or the conservatives recently published 40 policy proposals that, in their opinion, left, conservative, and centrist parties could implement together.
However, how the opposing parties could find common ground remains uncertain. The left, which already has little enthusiasm for cooperation with Macron's party, is unlikely to want to form a coalition with the conservatives. The same applies in reverse. And even among Macron's people, some have difficulties with the idea of working with the greens. The fact that the parties are gradually positioning themselves for the next presidential election in 2027 and are therefore looking for differentiation from each other is also unlikely to help.
Even though Macron emphasizes that it's not about a single name, the question of who will lead the government is likely to be a central topic in discussions. Alongside the Left's proposal of Castels, figures like the conservative regional president Xavier Bertrand, former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and former French foreign minister and later EU commissioner Michel Barnier are being considered as potential prime ministers. However, as seen previously with the outgoing prime minister Gabriel Attal, Macron could also surprise with an unexpected candidate.
Government Limbo Fuels Frustration
While it's challenging to negotiate who will govern France and with what team in the future, time is of the essence. A budget for the coming year must be passed, and consultations for this would typically begin in parliament in the fall. The new government will certainly want to revise the current draft by the outgoing government of Attal beforehand.
Moreover, a prolonged search for a government could be interpreted as a delaying tactic by Macron, further fueling frustration and mistrust among the population. Therefore, Macron doesn't have much time left to find a new prime minister.
The Commission has also expressed concerns about the delay in forming a new government, as it could affect France's ability to make crucial decisions, such as approving the budget for the upcoming year. Furthermore, the prolonged government limbo could exacerbate frustration and mistrust among the French population.
