Information pertaining to the electoral process in Brandenburg
Upcoming Elections in Brandenburg, Germany: On September 22, around 2.1 million eligible voters in Brandenburg will decide the political landscape of the state's capital, Potsdam. Will the surge of BSW and AfD persist?
Following elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Brandenburg is now witnessing its third state election in autumn 2024. This election isn't just about refilling the legislative body in Potsdam or determining future majorities in Germany's second most populous eastern state, but also serving as a political litmus test, merely a year before the federal election.
Latest polls in Brandenburg indicate notable gains for the newly formed alliance, the Alliance for Progress and Social Justice (BSW), led by Sahra Wagenknecht. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) could potentially emerge as the most powerful party in the state, as it has in Thuringia.
Remember: The election infographics are based on the most recent poll data available and will be continuously updated until election day.
Currently, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), holding the post of Minister-President in Brandenburg with Dietmar Woidke, is projected to receive around 26% of the votes in recent polls, placing them second to the AfD. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) anticipates receiving between 15-18% of the votes.
According to pollsters, the Greens and the Left Party are expected to suffer losses in Brandenburg. The Greens polled around 5% during the summer and may have difficulties securing entry into the state parliament or even a direct mandate. After splitting from the BSW, the Left Party is projected to incur significant losses, falling below the 5% threshold in some polls. The Brandenburg United Citizens' Movement (BVB) and the Free Voters (FW) are also unlikely to secure seats in the state parliament. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) plays a minor role in Brandenburg.
The current poll results only provide a snapshot. Much can change in public opinion and amongst voters by election day. Brandenburg's Minister-President Woidke and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz have expressed their confidence in the SPD winning the state election on September 22.
Woidke noted that, in 2019, the AfD also led in the polls, but the SPD still emerged as the strongest party. SPD leader Scholz is supporting his party colleague in the state election campaign from a distance, without joint appearances. However, Scholz expressed his confidence in Woidke and the SPD's chances: "I am certain that the people of Brandenburg will grant him a new mandate and vote the SPD as the strongest party." Scholz's federal constituency is also located in Brandenburg.
The future majority ratios in the Potsdam state parliament will ultimately be determined on election day, with voter turnout expected to have a substantial impact. In the last state election five years ago, 61.3% of eligible voters cast their ballots.
This was significantly higher than the previous low point of 47.9% in 2014 and overall, the third-highest participation rate in all previous state elections in Brandenburg since 1990. The willingness to vote on September 22 could significantly sway the election outcome: A turnout of 61.3% translates to the non-voters - if they were a separate party - becoming the strongest faction in the state parliament with 38.7%.
As of now, Woidke - only the third Minister-President in Brandenburg since reunification - has led a red-black-green coalition government with the CDU and Greens since 2019. According to the latest poll results, this coalition would be enough for a continuation.
A new two-party alliance would likely struggle: The SPD would not attain a majority with either a red-black or red-green coalition, according to polls. Even a hypothetical coalition with the new BSW does not guarantee a stable foundation in Brandenburg. For a successful government formation, the SPD would therefore need to enter into at least a three-party coalition.
The AfD, despite having promising chances of becoming the strongest faction in the state parliament, would probably remain without potential partners: The party, considered securely right-wing extremist in Brandenburg, could potentially provide the most MPs, but would still be far from any hope of government power.
In the event of an AfD victory, Woidke has already announced his resignation in advance and has repeatedly confirmed this. "If the AfD comes in first place, I cannot continue as Minister-President," Woidke said, such as in an interview with the "Tagesspiegel". "Of course, I would then draw the consequences." His clear election goal is to defeat the AfD in the election on September 22.
What would happen without Woidke is still undetermined. Woidke also rules out coalition negotiations with the BSW - provided that BSW party leader Sahra Wagenknecht is directly involved. "The BSW is a black box," said Woidke. "We'll have to wait and see if it's even willing to talk, if a cooperation would be possible or not."
Much in Brandenburg also relies on the performance of the Greens, Left, and Free Voters at the polls. For him, it is "unimaginable," Woidke said, that "things in Brandenburg would go the way they are currently being discussed in Saxony and Thuringia, with Frau Wagenknecht wanting to manage the state's affairs as a one-woman show from Saarland."
The strength of the factions in the state legislature hinges on the proportions of valid second votes. "The individual representation begins with the directly elected representatives via constituency mandates and proceeds to the placement of representatives from each party's state list," the state election commissioner clarifies. Due to adjustments and excess mandates, the number of legislators could potentially increase to a maximum of 110.
The typical number of seats in the Potsdam state legislature is 88. Forty-four of these seats are obtained through direct mandates from personal majority elections in the 44 constituencies. The remaining 44 seats are filled from the parties' state lists, based on the outcomes of the proportionate election.
On the ballot, beside the names of the constituency candidates, a total of 14 state lists from the permitted political parties, associations, and list associations are displayed. During the state election, each voter has the opportunity to cast a total of two crosses. The practice of casting two votes is known: by crossing two votes, a first vote for the election of a candidate in the constituency (direct mandate) and a second vote for the election of a party or political association's list (list mandate) is achieved.
Residents of the state with German citizenship and permanent residence in Brandenburg aged 16 and above are eligible to vote. The number of first-time voters in the state election approximates 100,000.
In the previous state legislature, the SPD led with 25 members, the AfD followed with 23, and the CDU had 15. Alliance 90/The Greens and The Left each had 10 representatives. The "BVB / Free Voters" coalition provided 5 mandate holders. To date, the state legislature has consisted of six political parties.
Following the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Elections to the Landtag of Brandenburg are set to take place in autumn 2024, serving as a precursor to the federal election the following year. The current polls indicate a potential surge for the Alliance for Progress and Social Justice (BSW), led by Sahra Wagenknecht, and a strong performance by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which could make them the most powerful party in Brandenburg, similar to their stance in Thuringia.
