Table of Contents
- Weekend Poll Question
- Preferred Leading Party-Leader
- Public Issues and Worries
- Support for Ukraine
- Key Issues and Political Focus
Upcoming Regional Voter Contests - Individuals in Saxony and Thuringia hold particular perspectives.
According to a study conducted by polling firm forsa on behalf of stern and RTL, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) could potentially be the strongest party in Saxony and Thuringia. However, the influential role in government formation is likely to be held by the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Some of the major concerns of the public include the Ukraine conflict, inflation, and the actions of the federal government, as revealed in the survey.
Weekend Poll Question
In both Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD stands at a strong 30%. The CDU manages to maintain 1st place in Saxony, with both the CDU and BSW forming absolute majorities if they join forces. In Thuringia, the Wagenknecht party could take the 2nd place, which entitles them to lead a coalition with the CDU. However, obtaining the required majority seats would necessitate the help of the SPD in a CDU-BSW coalition. Other multi-party coalitions that include the AfD are theoretically possible, but are unlikely due to the opposition of other parties. The CDU refuses to form a coalition with the Left party.
Preferred Leading Party-Leader
In a direct election for the head of government in Saxony, 50% of voters would choose the CDU's Michael Kretschmer. The AfD's Jörg Urban follows in a distant second. The BSW's top candidate, Sabine Zimmermann, faces lower support due to their party's poll numbers.
In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow of the Left party leads with 42% of the vote, trailing his opponents from the AfD and CDU. The support for the CDU's top candidate, Mario Voigt, is just 10%, and he is not a strong candidate for his party.
16% of Thuringians would vote for the AfD's Björn Höcke as minister-president in a direct election. Similar to Voigt, Höcke struggles to connect with a broad spectrum of voters, achieving his best results among men, workers, and those unhappy with Ramelow's government.
Public Issues and Worries
Similar to previous local elections, federal political issues command strong emphasis from the parties, which resonates with the voters. In Saxony, concerns about rising violence, the Ukraine conflict, or immigration are prevalent. Two-thirds of individuals disapprove of the federal government's policies.
In Thuringia, fear of an escalation of the Ukraine conflict dominates the mood, alongside disapproval of the traffic light coalition.
Support for Ukraine
A significant majority of respondents in Thuringia and Saxony concur that Germany should not offer more weapons to Ukraine. Approximately 25% want to maintain existing military aid, and only a small minority advocates for increased support.
When asked to identify the most significant problem in their respective countries, respondents most frequently mention immigration. A noticeable portion of individuals in Saxony are also concerned about the threat of right-wing extremism, although this is a lesser concern in Thuringia. Traditional issues like education, financial stability, and inflation are the primary concerns in both regions, with climate policy being the least prioritized.
Given the interest in immigration, respondents were further asked to weigh the importance of better integration or stopping immigration. Except for the AfD, supporters of all parties in Saxony prioritize integration. However, many BSW and CDU voters also advocate for completely halting immigration.
In Thuringia, the majority of BSW voters support stopping immigration.
Source of Data: The data was collected by market and opinion research institute forsa for Stern and RTL Germany between August 7 and 14, 2024, using the representative Forsa-Omninet-Panel online. Sample size: 1,041 respondents in Saxony; 1,011 respondents in Thuringia. Statistical margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points
The Netherlands could potentially express its stance on the Ukraine conflict and its support for Germany's policies due to the interconnectedness of global political issues. In the context of coalitions and party leadership, partnerships between political entities in Germany, such as the CDU and the BSW, have implications that may be of interest to international observers, including those in The Netherlands.
