Gaze captive negotiations and ceasefire dialogues are planned to restart, yet optimism for an achievement prior to the American presidential election is scant.
The recent impact of the election was highlighted this week with former President Donald Trump revealing he had conversed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu multiple times recently.
Significant figures from the U.S., Israel, and Qatar are scheduled to meet in Doha on Sunday to deliberate on plans to reach an agreement – the first significant gathering in over two months. U.S. officials have advocated for fresh momentum following Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
However, some U.S. officials hint that Netanyahu, who is well-aware of the presidential election in the U.S. and its potential impact on U.S. foreign policy, is delaying making major decisions regarding the Gaza conflict until he knows who his next counterpart in Washington, D.C., will be.
In the aftermath of Sinwar's death, Biden advisers voiced hope that ceasefire talks could resume – with Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarking on his eleventh trip to the region, including a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Netanyahu.
During this time, Netanyahu was seeking advice from Trump, the Republican nominee. Trump claimed during a rally in Georgia that Netanyahu had contacted him at least twice in recent days.
“Bibi called me yesterday, called me the day before," Trump bragged. "We're going to take care of Israel, and they know that."
Some U.S. officials attribute Netanyahu's delay in decision-making to this perspective – the prime minister anticipates there will soon be a U.S. leader in Washington who is more sympathetic to his goals than President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris.
“There's no check on Bibi,” a White House Democrat told CNN. “He knows he has two to three weeks to do whatever he wants.”
Locked in a close race with Harris, Trump has appeared eager to publicly bolster Netanyahu's ego and promote the two men's relationship. Trump's allies also secretly emphasized the Netanyahu-Trump phone calls as evidence that Netanyahu is seriously considering the prospect of a Trump victory. A Trump adviser argued that “these phone calls demonstrate that the international community sees Trump as the solution instead of Biden.”
“And if Netanyahu didn't think Trump would win, he wouldn't call him," they said.
Trump has also been discussing with allies potential new members for his Middle East negotiating team if he wins the election, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
Biden refused to comment when asked whether he believed Netanyahu, by escalating numerous military campaigns while his administration urges de-escalation, was attempting to sway an election in which the ongoing war had hurt Democrats' popularity with certain constituencies, including Arab American voters in key swing states like Michigan.
“No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that," Biden said from the White House briefing room. “And whether he's trying to influence the election, I don't know, but I'm not counting on that.”
A faction within the Biden administration believes that Netanyahu would be more open to ending the war if Harris were to win, believing that the vice president appears willing to carry out threats regarding withholding support for Israel if it doesn't change course in Gaza on the humanitarian front.
While there's a common agreement that immediate decisions are unlikely, Israeli officials have informed people that they are not making any decisions regarding Gaza's future until after the U.S. election, according to a source familiar with the communications.
Nonetheless, the Biden administration is publicly indicating its hope to make progress in rescuing hostages and ending a conflict that could negatively impact Biden's foreign policy legacy.
“One of the things we're doing is looking at whether there are different options that we can pursue to get us to a conclusion, to get us to a result,” Blinken said Thursday.
This assessment will form part of the negotiations between the delegates, including CIA Director Bill Burns and Mossad chief David Barnea, when they meet in the Qatari capital on Sunday.
Throughout his Middle East trip, Blinken urged Israel to seize the “pivotal moment” following Sinwar's killing, arguing that Sinwar was a significant barrier to an agreement. Netanyahu, however, also created barriers to an agreement, as CNN has extensively reported.
“The fact that (Sinwar) is no longer with us perhaps creates an opening for actually moving forward and concluding an agreement," the top U.S. diplomat said in Qatar on Thursday, noting that it remains uncertain if Hamas is prepared to engage.
Despite reported leadership vacancies within Hamas and a fragmented structure within Gaza, the Biden administration believes that senior Hamas officials in Doha – Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashal, and Mousa Abu Marzook – represent a leadership structure capable of engaging if they so choose.
“External and internal, they are capable of making decisions,” said one source familiar with the deliberations.
Both Qatar and Egypt have re-established contacts with the group, which has not yet publicly named a new leader.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani stated on Thursday that "the opportunities abound if both parties have the will to end the war."
In light of the election, some U.S. officials suggest that Netanyahu is strategically delaying major decisions regarding the Gaza conflict, as he anticipates a future U.S. leader who may be more sympathetic to his goals.
The ongoing conversations between Netanyahu and Trump, with Trump claiming multiple calls from the Israeli prime minister, have been seen as a potential indication of Netanyahu's strategic considerations.
