Following the migration summit, Merz and Union experience a decrease in backing.
After the resignation of North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister President Hendrik Wüst, Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, is now the Union's clear choice for chancellor nomination. However, Merz's ascension to power is marred by setbacks during his unofficial coronation week, as the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer shows a drop in the Union's support by two percentage points, and Merz losing ground in a direct comparison with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Alliance for Progress and Social Welfare (BSW) also sees a dip in approval ratings. The SPD and FDP gain slightly in support.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the expected results would be: CDU/CSU 31 percent (down from 24.1 percent in the 2021 federal election), AfD 17 percent (up from 10.3 percent), SPD 15 percent (up from 25.7 percent), Greens 11 percent (up from 14.8 percent), BSW 6 percent (new entry), FDP 4 percent (down from 11.5 percent). The approval rating for The Left is at 3 percent (down from 4.9 percent). 14 percent of respondents would vote for other parties, a slight increase from the previous week.
The Union's slide in popularity might be due to its stance on immigration policy. In response to the Islamist terrorist attack in Solingen, Merz pushed for a change in the federal government's approach. He rejected the proposals of the traffic light coalition, including the border controls inaugurated on Monday, and abruptly halted the so-called migration summit. Members of the traffic light coalition accused Merz of plotting the withdrawal since the start of the campaign.
Only a fifth of respondents supported the withdrawal from the talks. The majority, 72 percent, agreed, "No, the Union should have continued negotiating with the federal government." Among Union supporters, 65 percent opposed the withdrawal, while only 28 percent approved. The rest remained undecided.
Majorities of FDP (58 percent) and BSW (65 percent) supporters also disapproved of the withdrawal. In the AfD camp, Merz's move found some favor; 44 percent approved, while 43 percent wanted the talks to continue.
Migration was an important issue for 33 percent of respondents. State elections and the federal government were mentioned by 31 percent each. The economic situation and the war in Ukraine were considered significant by 30 percent each. The US election campaign was regarded as important by 19 percent, while 8 percent mentioned climate and environment, and 6 percent highlighted the Middle East conflict.
Economic expectations worsened slightly: 15 percent still expected improvement, and 21 percent predicted no change. The proportion expecting a decline rose to 61 percent, an increase of one point.
The Union gave up a point in the category of problem-solving competence: They were named by 20 percent of those surveyed. The SPD rose to 9 percent, with two more points than the previous week. The AfD remained steady at 8 percent, while the Greens stayed at 7 percent, the FDP at 1 percent, and the mention of other parties at 5 percent. No party commanded 50 percent problem-solving competence - a drop of one point from the previous week.
The losses suffered by the Union are mirrored in their official chancellor candidate, Merz: In a direct comparison with incumbent Scholz, both score 26 percent. This means Scholz gained two points, while Merz lost two. A striking 48 percent of respondents rejected both as potential leaders.
In the east, Merz has a slight edge with 24 to 23 percent. In West Germany, both Merz and Scholz have 26 percent support each. Among Union supporters, 60 percent prefer Merz, while 11 percent back Scholz. Among SPD supporters, 70 percent want Scholz to remain Chancellor and only 7 percent are in favor of Merz. Among Union supporters, 29 percent reject both, while among SPD supporters, 23 percent remain unimpressed by both.
The data for the RTL/ntv-Trendbarometer were collected between September 3rd and 9th, on behalf of RTL Germany by the market and opinion research institute Forsa. The survey sampled 2501 participants with a statistical error tolerance of plus/minus 2.5 percent points. The opinions regarding the cancellation of migration talks were gathered between September 13th and 16th, sampling 1002 participants with a statistical error tolerance of plus/minus 3.0 percent points. Forsa conducts surveys for RTL Germany.
In light of these polling results, discussions about the upcoming 'Elections to the Landtag of Brandenburg' may be influencing voters' decisions, as the Union's popularity dip is reflected in the expected results for a hypothetical Bundestag election. During the week, Merz faced criticism for his stance on immigration policy, which might impact his performance in the Brandenburg elections.
The setbacks experienced by Merz in the Union's national campaign could potentially influence the results of 'Elections to the Landtag of Brandenburg', as voters in Brandenburg may be considering the Union's overall performance and leadership choices when casting their ballots.
