Do we need a climate Fukushima?

In 2023, the German climate movement finds itself in a tricky situation: its most prominent representative attracts attention, but also rejection. The majority of the scene stands in her shadow, disillusionment is spreading. But the situation has one advantage.

"With Russia's attack on Ukraine, the climate crisis has lost political attention - but not its explosiveness," says Lennart Schürmann. He researches political protest and radicalization at the Berlin Social Science Center and is observing a climate movement that is in a state of flux. 2023 has finally seen a change in the role of the most prominent actor in the media, says Schürmann in an interview with ntv.de. This is "also a reaction to the fact that Fridays for Future has not been able to fully implement its political goals".

Inga Feuser can tell you a thing or two about how climate change continues to weigh heavily on young people in particular, despite the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and inflation. As a teacher, she is confronted on a daily basis with young people who are suffering from increasing psychological stress, says the director of "Teachers for Future" (TFF) ntv.de. Feuser talks about a pupil who had been active in the climate movement for a long time. At some point, he came to her and said he couldn't do it anymore. He wondered whether it wouldn't be better to buy a bag of popcorn and watch the end of the world.

In addition to wars and the pandemic, it is also the prospect of a climate catastrophe that is massively stressing many students, says Feuser. According to the biannual"Trend Study - Youth in Germany", climate change has been a major concern for more than half of under-30s in recent years. The economic situation and the war in Ukraine have done nothing to change this. Concerns about inflation (63%) and the war in Europe (59%) affected more young people this summer than fear of the climate crisis (53%). However, fears of war and economic decline did not eclipse concerns about the climate, but merely overshadowed them. In addition, this younger age group still takes the climate much more seriously than the under 50s, for example: Here, climate change only lands in seventh place in the worry ranking.

"Growing willingness for civil disobedience"

Even if the pressure is still high - the courage from the early years of the Fridays for Future movement has given way to resignation among many young people, says Inga Feuser. On the other hand, this resignation is countered by a "growing willingness to engage in civil disobedience", says Feuser.She can understand why young people feel that their legitimate concerns and fears are not being heard and therefore join groups such as Ende Gelände, the Last Generation or Extinction Rebellion. Protest researcher Schürmann has also observed this interplay. It is currently utopian that the adjustments that would be necessary to achieve the 1.5 degree target would be made at a political level.

Lina Johnsen, spokesperson for the Last Generation, argued similarly after their airport blockades in the summer: the FFF protests were not enough, so civil resistance was the method of choice. Because they did not know what to do, the Last Generation put their own bodies in the way of the fossil 'business as usual'. They are trying to "disrupt the everyday life that will ultimately lead us over this cliff", said Johnsen in the "Tagesthemen".

Can the Fridays benefit from the flanking effect?

The Last Generation is very successful with its strategy of generating increased attention through more extreme forms of protest - "if you follow the logic that protest wants to generate attention for certain issues", says protest researcher Schürmann.

This is precisely where Pit Terjung sees the problem. In an interview with ntv.de, the spokesperson for Fridays for Future says that the attention for the climate debate has long been there: "What we need now is a fight to overcome rifts in society and achieve political majorities."

The activities of the Last Generation could even make this fight easier for Fridays for Future, says protest researcher Schürmann, but they certainly do no harm: his studies clearly show that the rejection of the Last Generation does not turn into rejection of the climate targets, says Schürmann. Rather, the Fridays could benefit from the so-called flanking effect. This theory states that alongside the wing perceived as more radical, the supposedly more moderate wing is gaining credibility in society.

"Our world becomes more fragile with every tonne of CO2"

According to Schürmann, this applies to the German climate movement insofar as many people are now saying: "The good Fridays, they still protested properly and didn't block everything." The framing has clearly changed here. In the beginning, the Fridays for Future protests were also met with strong rejection, and the young people who skipped school were perceived as radical at the time. Now, compared to the last generation, their actions are almost seen as well-behaved, says Schürmann.

The image of Fridays for Future is currently being tarnished by Greta Thunberg's pro-Palestinian statements. The icon of the movement has had to endure harsh criticism - especially from Germany. Some predicted that Thunberg had buried her own legacy with her accusations of genocide. The German FFF section clearly distanced itself, but countered the swan song for the movement by saying that Thunberg had always been a media figure. According to FFF spokesperson Pit Terjung, it is obviously not the case that one person is steering an entire movement: "On the contrary, there are many, many, many hands working together."

Climate activist and teacher Inga Feuser agrees. She says that Thunberg has achieved a lot, but has had little influence on the German FFF section. The discussion about her person is important and right. But now we have to make sure that climate protection is done, otherwise there will be many more wars in the coming years. "Our world is so fragile and with every tonne of CO2 it becomes more fragile," says Feuser.

Fridays for Future are increasingly trying to draw strength from cooperation with other movements. They are no longer relying solely on Friday protests, but increasingly on links with other movements, trade unions and associations, observes Schürmann. With its new, more provocative forms of protest, the Last Generation has also ensured that the scene as a whole has become more diverse. The protest repertoire has been expanded, Schürmann notes.

Do we need a climate Fukushima?

In 2023, for example, Fridays for Future took to the streets several times together with public transport workers. "The people who drive the buses sometimes have turnaround times of ten minutes. They can't eat or go to the toilet," says FFF spokesperson Terjung, explaining this collaboration. "These are really precarious working conditions in a job that will become increasingly important for us in the future." They want the transport revolution, but they want it to be social and ecological.

Inga Feuser from Teachers for Future also believes that the pressure exerted by the climate movement is not yet enough. "We really need to think carefully about our strategy for 2024." She is convinced that a wide range of forms of action are needed: from low-threshold, which are open to everyone, to those that increase the pressure.

There is not just one way in social processes, says protest researcher Schürmann: "I believe that we also need a 'march through the institutions'." The fact that the Fridays for Future network is perceived as reasonable, in contrast to the Last Generation, could also make it easier for him to build up sufficient pressure. Together with allied movements or trade unions, it would then seem possible to achieve key political decisions.

Schürmann brings another change factor into play - a parallel to the anti-nuclear movement: In order to trigger actual decisions and political action, the climate movement may also need an external shock. In the end, Germany only finally withdrew from nuclear power after the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. The climate movement generally enjoys great support, and the long-term effects of the Fridays for Future protests are also underestimated. However, the actual need for action and the real dangers of climate change may only become clear as extreme weather events become more frequent.