China may potentially surpass the number of toddlers with pet ownership, posing challenges for Beijing.
These tiny beings aren't their biological offspring, but rather their cherished "furbabies," or "mao hai zi" in Chinese, and this couple adores them so much they refer to them as "our kids, our little ones."
"They are all part of our family. We are one big family," shared Momo, who chose to use her nickname to avoid potential issues with authorities due to her unconventional lifestyle, which goes against China's efforts to boost birth rates.
China is currently grappling with a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce after decades of enforcing its strict one-child policy. The country is also one of the most expensive places in the world, relative to other nations, to raise a child. According to a study from the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute, China ranks highly in terms of child-rearing costs, surpassing both Australia and France.
After scrapping the one-child policy in 2016 and implementing another significant birth policy change in 2021, the Chinese government now encourages couples to have three children. However, Beijing has struggled to boost birth rates as effectively as it had in deterring them.
Many Chinese couples, such as Hansen, 36, and Momo, 35, are not ardent supporters of parenthood. Instead, they have chosen to become pet parents.
By the end of the year, the number of pets in China's cities is expected to surpass the number of children aged 4 and under, according to a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs. By 2030, the number of pets in urban China alone will nearly double the total number of young children in the country, as per Goldman Sachs' projection. The country's pet ownership rate would be even higher if the number of dogs and cats in rural areas were included.
The Goldman Sachs estimates underscore the evolving values of a generation that no longer adheres to the traditional view that marriage is primarily about procreation and preserving family lineage.
"Different generations have different priorities, you know," said Hansen, who also chose to use a nickname.
Thriving pet market
In anticipating a surge in pet food sales, Goldman Sachs highlighted a trend that has been causing headaches for Chinese officials.
In 2022, China's population experienced a decrease for the first time in decades, marking what analysts refer to as its first decline since the 1961 famine, which was triggered by former leader Mao Zedong's disastrous Great Leap Forward policy. A year later, China was surpassed by India as the most populous country in the world.
Goldman found that pet food is one of the fastest-growing consumer sectors in China, despite overall stagnant spending. Sales increased an average of 16% annually between 2017 and 2023, generating a $7 billion industry. The industry's value is projected to reach $12 billion by 2030, according to the report. At its optimistic estimate, the pet food market could become a $15 billion industry in China by 2028.
This represents a stark contrast to two decades ago, when pet ownership was still viewed as a luxury and people primarily kept mixed-breed dogs for protection.
Currently, pet ownership remains relatively low, according to Goldman Sachs' analysis. Last year, the percentage of dog-owning households in Chinese cities was 5.6%, far lower than many of its neighbors and providing room for growth, it said. By 2009, Japan had reached a pet ownership rate of 17.5%.
The report predicted a decline in new births in China, with a contraction of 4.2% annually between 2022 and 2030. This is due to a decrease in the number of women in the 20-35 age group and a reluctance among young people to have children.
"We anticipate stronger growth in pet ownership against the backdrop of a weaker birth rate prediction and higher pet penetration from the younger generation," the report concluded.
Many couples find the escalating cost of raising children in uncertain economic times to be a challenge. The world's second-largest economy is facing numerous challenges, such as high youth unemployment and a protracted property crisis.
Authorities are now offering an array of incentives, including cash and extended parental leave, to encourage parenthood. However, many of these initiatives are having limited success.
As of 2021, China's population had fallen to 1.409 billion, marking a two-year decline. Its birth rate also reached an all-time low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, the lowest rate since the establishment of the Communist Party in 1949.
Shifting perceptions
Li, 38, operates Space, a dog boarding facility in Beijing. For Li, the growing preference for pets equates to increased business.
With China's National Day holiday approaching, dog owners are rushing to secure kennel space during the busy travel season that begins on October 1.
"We were almost fully booked for that holiday," Li shared.
Li, who shared only her nickname, has no children and two dogs. Her family had long urged her to have children, she said, but she knew that wasn't the life she wanted.
"I enjoy this lifestyle. My partner and I plan to travel a lot. I love seeing the world. So, the idea of having kids didn't appeal to me enough," she explained.
The modern mindset among the youth has shifted significantly, according to Tao. "I believe people are becoming more self-centered now, expressing their desires like, 'This is what I desire for my life,' or 'This is what I prefer,' instead of conforming to societal norms such as, 'This is what society expects of me,' or 'This is what my parents want me to do,'" Tao explained further.
Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten, an expert in social sciences and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, pointed out that in China, owning pets is no longer seen as incompatible with raising children.
However, young couples in China are facing numerous challenges, including unemployment and societal pressure issues such as long working hours and the expectation that women may abandon their careers after giving birth, Gietel-Basten mentioned.
In Gietel-Basten's opinion, if a 20-something in China strongly feels the need to nurture, it's easier to get a pet like a puppy, kitten, or rabbit than find a partner and start a family.
For Hansen and Momo, they derive pleasure from their pet companionship.
"We aren't following any trends. We don't care about them. It's just our personal preference. I think we simply adore dogs," Hansen shared.
Every day, Hansen eagerly awaits returning home as his dogs are thrilled to see him.
"This solves everything," he said.
China's leader Xi Jinping urged delegates at a women's conference last year to establish a new kind of marriage and childbearing culture. The message was clear: Chinese women should marry and have children.
However, Momo believes China can survive without her genetic contribution.
"I believe this one child from me isn't necessary for China," she stated.
China's pet ownership rate is expected to nearly double the total number of young children in urban areas by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs' projection. This shift in values among the younger generation is causing headaches for Chinese officials, as pet food sales in China have become a rapidly growing consumer sector.
The thriving pet market in China is projected to reach $12 billion by 2030, with an average annual increase of 16% between 2017 and 2023. This growth is largely driven by the increasing number of pet owners, particularly in urban areas, who find the escalating cost of raising children in uncertain economic times to be a challenge.
