Can Robert, the Conservativist, potentially revitalize the Greens Party?
The Greens are in disarray: Election disaster, government turmoil, leadership breakdown, youth departure. Robert Habeck is restructuring the party. Some already accuse him of being a "coup leader" and "conservative Robert." However, Habeck's takeover might lead the Greens into a government with Friedrich Merz.
The power grab at the Greens has left many losers, but one clear winner: Robert Habeck. His internal party opponents are resigning in droves, or being ousted. In return, he emerges as the sole leading candidate, promoting his trusted ally and state secretary Franziska Brantner as party chair. Sven Giegold, another state secretary in Habeck's economics ministry, is set to become the Greens' "political director." The only missing piece is for his state secretary Michael Kellner to be officially crowned as Robert Habeck's heir to the Green throne. The "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" labels the power grab a "small coup," while Der Spiegel refers to it as a "major coup." Several leading commentators caution that the Greens are transforming into a "HERA" - a "Habeck Eco-Radical Alliance" akin to the Wagenknecht party.
Certainly, the Habeck power grab won't just replace faces; it could reshape the Greens. Instead of right-wing environmental activism, the party may shift towards the center, becoming more bourgeois, and corporate-friendly. Already, there are strong signals from the realo wing of the party about the new direction. Cem Özdemir calls for stricter border control in the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung," arguing that his daughter is frequently harassed by foreigners.
Settling Scores with the Party Left
Winfried Kretschmann complains in an interview with "Die Zeit" that leftists always have an excess of "ethical principles" that translates into "declarations" about being right. In a democracy, however, pragmatism and majorities are essential. Kretschmann stated that he had distanced himself from "the whole leftist mentality" long ago - and now encourages other Greens to do the same. Even Boris Palmer reemerges, senses the shifting political winds, and praises the resignations as a "positive development." For climate action, one must work with the economy rather than against it.
The media reaction to the Green upheaval is predominantly negative. Political opponents indulge in derisive comments. However, they may be premature, as the Habeck tide has stronger chances than currently perceived.
Strategically, the centrist positioning with respectable, serious faces is the wise move for the Greens. For years, the party was confined to the 6 to 9 percent acceptance niche with left-leaning figures like Jürgen Trittin, Hans-Christian Ströbele, Renate Künast, and Claudia Roth. In 2013, the Greens gained 8.4 percent in the federal election, and only slightly better at 8.9 percent in 2017. Only when the realos gained control and presented bourgeois-friendly candidates like Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck did the door open to becoming a major party.
Germany is not Left-leaning
In this country, majorities in the center are not just attainable, but also trusted. Despite being typically overlooked in public discourse, Germany's broad electorate is greatly influenced by a left-skeptical instinct. There's a cultural reason why the CSU alone has more members in just one federal state than the Greens do in all 16 combined. During the 75-year history of the Federal Republic, the CDU has governed for more than half the time, and even moderate Social Democrats only ascended to power when their chancellor candidates, like Helmut Schmidt or Gerhard Schröder, presented themselves as distinctly not left-wing. Frugality is simply more popular than identity politics.
In times when not only Germany but also almost all other Western countries are experiencing a broad shift to the right, left-wing positions only appeal to a select minority. Habeck's course correction is thus aligned with the zeitgeist. His strength lies in his ability to attract both the socially liberal voters of the imploding FDP and former Merkel voters of the CDU to his party. Election analysts estimate the Greens’ potential voter base to be up to 30 percent if the party can practically position itself as a centrist people's party.
If Habeck now reforms his party, he has the advantage of being able to launch the 2025 federal election campaign in a new configuration early. Despite the setbacks, Habeck can still gather sympathetic votes, perform brilliantly, and is known for his skill as a campaigner. However, there are two major problems that speak against a spectacular Green comeback.
The base and milieu are alienated from Habeck and his course
Firstly, the sidelined left wing of the party is completely demoralized. The Greens have not only lost their entire board and the leadership of the Green Youth, but also the voter base of eco-socially minded people. The Greens have already lost the pacifist wing due to their Ukraine policy. Their authoritarian stance during the coronavirus period has also estranged the sovereignty-critical, anarchist-liberal faction. If they now also alienate the left-wing, multicultural milieu of major cities, it will be challenging to achieve good election results.
The Greens' drop in public approval is quite significant, to put it mildly. In 2022, they managed approval ratings between 24% and 26%. Prior to the federal election, they even got close to the 30% mark. Now, they're flirting with single-digit figures. It's like every other potential voter is saying their goodbyes. However, their dedicated supporters seem unwilling to put in the effort for Robert Habeck. The economics minister is currently under fire more than anywhere else in the cozy corners of Prenzlauer Berg, the trendy North End of Frankfurt, or in Freiburg's student pubs. There, they discuss Habeck's "Right-wing-Robert" image, his "ego trip", the "betrayal of ideals", and the "Boris Palmerization of the Greens". While Habeck has gained influence within the party, he's lost a lot of actual support.
From "heat pump" to "hot air" minister
The second problem for Habeck is his personal image. The Greens' decline over the past year and a half isn't due to the valiant resignations of Lang/Nouripour but rather Habeck's performance as vice-chancellor and economics minister in the shaky traffic light government. Two and a half years ago, Robert Habeck was Germany's most popular politician. Habeck was seen as the potential chancellor candidate, with Scholz seeming weak and Merz not quite there yet. "Habeck 2025" sounded like a promising prospect to many.
Today, the tables have turned. Running for chancellor seems like a joke. Habeck has made too many blunders in his role as minister, from the infamously botched gas surcharge to the Graichen nepotism scandal, to the ill-advised heating bans in the economics ministry. As a philosopher rather than an economist, Habeck lacked the necessary expertise. Even mentioning the "heating law" in pubs from Garmisch to Flensburg can lead to a hard time getting a second round of drinks. The "hot air minister" image has stuck, making it difficult to rally the middle class for any campaign.
Green Power Slipping Away
Habeck's pursuit of green power may have come four years too late. In 2020/21, the Greens had a golden opportunity to establish themselves as a new, center-left people's party, replacing a severely weakened SPD. Their message was resonating, green climate issues were the talk of the town, and the new leadership was seen as cool. However, Habeck let the equally ambitious Annalena Baerbock take the lead in the campaign. She stumbled, and with it, the Greens' historic chance.
Today, a comeback could at best help secure a new coalition with a Chancellor Merz. For this, Habeck's influence might still be useful. Polls showing 33% to 35% for the Union and 12% to 15% for the Greens would be enough for Germany's first black-green coalition. And if Habeck manages to "Kretschmannize" his party, it could indeed become quite bourgeois.
After the internal power struggle, Habeck's influence within the Greens extends beyond party leadership, as he manages to appoint trusted allies like Franziska Brantner and Sven Giegold to key positions. This reshaping of the party could potentially lead to a shift towards the center, becoming more corporate-friendly and appealing to a wider voter base, as was evident in the party's improved performance in elections under realo-friendly candidates like Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck.
Despite these strategic moves, Habeck's popularity among the party's base and milieu has significantly declined. The left-wing faction of the party is demoralized, and their authoritarian stance during the coronavirus period and Ukraine policy have estranged certain voter groups. Habeck's image as a "right-wing Robert" and his perceivedBetrayal of ideals have further tarnished his popularity, particularly among supportive milieus in urban areas.
