Aspirational Showdown Expected to Secure 2024 Presidential Victory for Biden
Biden's team is leveraging the crucial 2024 presidential debate to emphasize a contrast in character and policies they believe will determine the election's outcome, assuming voters finally recognize it.
This mirrors one of Biden's own jokes - he doesn't need universal popularity, only to be perceived as less unacceptable than the other contestant, who happens to be an exceedingly extreme ex-president in contemporary history. "My dad used to say, 'Joey, don't compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative,'" Biden frequently remarks at rallies. This argument provides a safety net for a president with approval ratings typically leading to a single term and difficulty selling his accomplishments to the public.
Biden's team portrays Trump as a deranged, law-breaking agent of vengeance, unfit for another term as president, focusing solely on himself, wealthy cronies, and fervent anti-abortion advocates. Conversely, Biden is depicted as a pillar of stability and defender of the nation's democratic values who tirelessly works to enhance the living conditions of workers.
The Biden campaign prepared the Atlanta face-off with CNN in a weekend memo. "Thursday's debate will offer the first opportunity for a larger electorate to observe the stark choice between Joe Biden, working relentlessly for the American people, and Donald Trump who acts as a convicted felon with an unstable persona and vindictive campaign," wrote Michael Tyler, Biden's campaign communications director. Mitch Landrieu, a campaign co-chair, reinforced the contrast on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday. "The American people must consider the prudence, ethical standards, and judgment of the individual they're choosing to lead America, not just domestically but also internationally."
CNN's Kayla Tausche reported on Tuesday that several top Democrats outside the White House want Biden to cease claiming credit for his achievements, such as robust job growth and a strong legislative record, and instead attack Trump directly. "He wants the credit, but it's not working," one top Democrat, who shared concerns with the campaign, stated.
The 2024 election diverges from convention
It's common for an incumbent to denigrate an opponent's character and qualifications to fortify a challenging reelection bid. In 2004, Bush's team disparaged Democrat Kerry's Vietnam War heroism to portray him as unable to handle the war on terror. In 2012, Obama's campaign portrayed Romney as a wealthy, heartless corporate shark bereft of empathy who reveled in firing workers.
Both attacks succeeded. However, this is not a typical campaign, nor is Trump a conventional candidate. Democrats have been dismayed that Trump's return to the political scene and his primary victory haven't already crystallized the comparison and rendered him politically unacceptable. The assumption that voters will finally recognize the comparison hinges on the notion that most Americans, unlike political experts and media industry professionals, don't actively engage with politics and presidential elections for most of their lives. They merely require a reminder of how things used to be, the thinking goes.
If Trump rants and spews his 2020 election falsehoods during the debate, he will bolster Biden's position. Yet, the belief in a moment of national realization about Trump's perceived threat feels more fitting for the era of Cronkite than the era of TikTok.
Biden, often viewed as too old to serve a second term ending when he is 86, is also under pressure to offer a vision for the future to a weary electorate tired of high costs. To make the comparison successful, he must project confidence, resilience, and authority for himself.
However, there is a deeper issue regarding the president's approach. Can it truly be that, eight years after Trump won the White House and three years after his turbulent presidency ended in chaos, voters don't fully comprehend who Trump is? His media dominance makes it seem like he's never left office. Additionally, voters must be astonishingly disengaged to not know that he's a recently convicted felon, twice impeached, refused to concede defeat in 2020, incited a mob to storm the US Capitol, lost a massive civil fraud trial, was found guilty of sexual assault in a defamation case, mused about using disinfectants internally to treat Covid-19 during the pandemic, and spent weeks attacking judges, witnesses, the legal system, and vowing to use the presidency as a means for personal and political vengeance if reelected.
Despite this, he's still locked in a close race with Biden and has been leading in many of the crucial swing states that determine the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Biden and fellow Democrats may see Trump as unacceptable. But he is to many voters.
A nation divided stands at a crossroads, politically and culturally, mirroring the conflicting popularity of Biden. This divisive landscape presents an intriguing aspect in this election, featuring two presidents, each with a single term under their belt, vying for the White House. The electorate no longer questions Trump's presidency style, as they already have a glimpse - albeit, a second term for the 45th president promises to be even more contentious and tumultuous than the first.
Potential Strategies Trump Might Employ to Counter Biden's Strategy
Supposing the Biden campaign persists with the contrast strategy, Trump could foil it by displaying restraint and presenting a list of initiatives designed to alleviate voter concerns about their personal finances.
There were occasional instances during Trump’s presidency where he observed etiquette. Political strategist Karl Rove, who engineered Bush’s 2004 reelection, suggested in his Wall Street Journal column last week that "Trump should not appear unhinged or enraged." He warned, "The phrase 'rigged election' should not escape his lips," and recommended Trump maintain composure and focus on himself less. However, Trump seldom adheres to such guidance.
Several of Trump’s allies have been dispensing advice on television. For example, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem stated on NBC that the debate would offer an excellent platform for Trump to discuss "how his policies, when he served as president, benefited every family in the country. They had more money in their pockets. Grocery prices were down. Gas prices were down." She also emphasized, "Trump doesn't need to get personal during the debate."
Despite his aversion to formal debate, Trump has attended numerous policy meetings with supporters. Yet, when he goes live, the script often goes awry.
The unconventional debate format could favor Trump. Muted microphones are intended to ensure uninterrupted speaking time for both candidates, potentially preventing the chaos of the first Trump vs. Biden debate in 2020. Trump’s erratic demeanor was partially justified when he was hospitalized shortly after with a severe case of Covid-19. Biden's exasperated remark, "Shut up, man!," echoed the sentiments of many tired of four years of Trump’s disruptive rhetoric. In another departure from tradition, there will be no live audience during the debate, housed within a CNN studio in Atlanta. Trump’s most extreme remarks often surface when he performs for a crowd, amplifying his comments that generate a strong reaction.
However, the encounter represents Trump's reunion with a nemesis he accuses of a persecution campaign threatening his wealth and freedom. And Trump hasn’t exactly been tactical in the lead-up to the debate. His campaign has spent days revising their characterization of Biden as a senile president unable to articulate coherent thoughts. Now, they claim Biden will be "jacked up" on drugs.
After months of portraying Biden as too feeble-minded to govern, the Trump campaign's strategy seems paradoxical. It presumably portrays a supreme debater who, by logical extension, would appear presidential. Trump advisor Jason Miller asserted on Tuesday, "When it comes to the big events, when it comes to debates, when it comes to State of the Union, things of that nature, they'll have Joe Biden completely super-soldiered up." Miller added, "He is going to be ready to go. He has a certain muscle memory that kicks in for having done this for 50 years."
Democrats are hopeful Biden will deliver on this promise and outshine his adversary, who Warren characterized during a Wisconsin tour as "a good and decent man who will protect freedom for women across this country and who is fighting to lower costs for working families."
Warren further stated, "Let Donald Trump be Donald Trump - the man who panders to an extremist base and who has said to his rich-as-hell donors that if they'll just put more money into his campaign, he'll give them giant tax cuts and cut back regulations on climate."
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In this election divergence, Trump may employ a strategy to counter Biden's contrast strategy by displaying restraint and presenting a list of initiatives aimed at improving voter concerns about their financial situations, as suggested by political strategist Karl Rove.
Despite the proposed restraint, some of Trump's allies advise him to focus on his policies and benefits during the debate, avoiding personal attacks, such as Governor Kristi Noem, who emphasized Trump's accomplishments in lowering grocery and gas prices during his presidency.
