Analysis: Examining the Parallel and Distinct Elements of Biden and Trump's Global Leadership Styles
During Thursday's presidential debate on CNN, you probably won't hear much about the shared aspects between Biden and Trump. Nevertheless, it's essential to remember these factors when both candidates take the stage for what could be a significant debate, with implications for the upcoming years.
When evaluating the candidates, it's crucial to consider aspects like temperament, coherence, and reliability. These elements are crucial for the future leader of the world's leading superpower, given that both American allies and adversaries demand a certain level of dependability.
American allies expect and deserve respect, not disregard. A clear example is the push to get all NATO members to dedicate 2% of their GDP to their defense by the end of this year.
This objective was agreed upon during the Obama administration when Biden was vice president. However, during his tenure, President Trump publicly lambasted NATO allies for not spending enough on defense, falsely accusing them of owing the US billions.
Trump's inaccurate criticisms didn't cause a significant increase in defense spending among vital American allies like Germany, but they certainly triggered resentment towards Trump among Germans. In 2018, only 11% of Germans held a favorable view of Trump, and favorable views of the US overall also decreased by 20% during his administration, according to a Pew/Körber Foundation poll.
Moreover, unpredictable changes in American policy, such as Trump openly expressing his affection for the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un - a problematic regime that has troubled American presidents for years - are unsettling to US allies and even rivals like China. Although China is nominally an ally of North Korea, Kim's expanding nuclear and ballistic missile programs, combined with his erratic behavior, are unnerving to the Chinese, who value stability in East Asia.
On the key foreign policy issue of the 21st century - US-China relations - there is little difference between Biden and Trump. Trump initiated a much more aggressive approach towards China than his predecessors.
The belief that China would become more democratic as its economy grew was officially abandoned in Trump's 2017 National Security Strategy. Instead, the Trump administration started treating China as a formidable competitor that needed to be addressed, and began strengthening its Indo-Pacific partnerships such as "The Quad," comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the US. Trump also imposed a wide range of tariffs on Chinese goods, a policy unpopular among free-market proponents in both parties.
When Biden entered the White House, he continues to uphold those tariffs and even imposed a 100% tax on Chinese electric vehicles. Biden also prohibited investments by US companies in China that could benefit the Chinese military in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced computer chips. Furthermore, in 2022, on 60 Minutes, Biden stated that the US would defend Taiwan if China invaded, seemingly abandoning the longstanding US policy of "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan, which is intended to keep China guessing about the US response if it were to attack the island.
During Thursday's debate, I will be watching to see the candidates' views on US military commitments to Taiwan, given that US intelligence has suggested that China's President Xi Jinping, one of the most powerful Chinese leaders since Mao, has instructed the military to prepare for an invasion of the island by 2027, a date that would fall within the next presidential term.
I will also be listening to see how the candidates might address the continued imposition of US tariffs on everyday goods made in China, such as shoes and luggage, which function as an additional tax on ordinary Americans.
Lastly, let's venture to the Middle East, where the war in Gaza is still ongoing. Previously, the Trump administration did not make significant efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and may have exacerbated the issue with actions like moving the US embassy from its longtime location in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This move provoked protests during which dozens of Palestinians were killed. Like Israelis, Palestinians believe that Jerusalem is their rightful capital.
While in office, Trump ignored Israel's expanding settlement building in the West Bank, and appointed as US Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, who publicly stated that he did not believe that Israeli settlement activity was illegal. The Trump administration also supported Israel if it annexed parts of the West Bank.
Meanwhile, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner - a friend of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - negotiated the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab states but offered nothing to the Palestinians.
It was the apparent imminent extension of the Abraham Accords to include the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel - a deal encouraged by the Biden administration - that seems to have, in part, led to Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7. In a rare interview two weeks before the Hamas attack, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince bin Salman, told Fox News, "Every day we get closer" to normalizing ties with Israel.
Hamas aims to disrupt the normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as stated by President Biden during a campaign event in October.
The Biden administration, in many ways, maintains the unquestioning support for the Netanyahu government despite growing dissatisfaction with Israel's leader. This unwavering backing of Netanyahu has earned the name "the bear hug". Although Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have raised concerns about the casualties in Gaza, their primary policy remains strong support for Israel. The Biden administration is proceeding with the sale of $18 billion worth of F-15 fighter jets to Israel.
The US has supplied Israel with numerous bombs used in its full-scale war against Hamas, while the heavily publicized American-built pier in the Mediterranean intended to provide aid to starving Gazans has been a disaster. It's quite unusual for a war in which one of the belligerents receives weapons from the U.S., while the other side receives aid supplies.
During the debate, I will focus on understanding the candidates' views on ending the conflict in Gaza, given the stalemate in the peace plan proposed by Biden at the end of May. This plan would have initiated with a six-week ceasefire and the release of some hostages held by Hamas.
Iran and Saudi Arabia
Trump's maiden international trip as president was to Saudi Arabia, where he received a regal welcome due to his anti-Iran stance aligning with Saudi interests. Trump withdrew from the Obama administration's nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018 and, two years later, authorized the killing of a prominent Iranian military leader, Major General Qasem Soleimani, in a drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq, citing his responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of American civilians and soldiers.
During his presidential campaign, Biden pledged to review America's longstanding alliance with the Saudis following the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi officials. However, Biden's advisors now support the Saudi de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), because they believe the path to long-term peace between Israel and the Palestinians lies via Riyadh if Israel and Saudi Arabia can agree to normalize relations as part of a two-state solution.
While there were initial efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, the Biden administration has not renewed the agreement. Early this year, Biden also authorized a drone strike that killed the leader of an Iranian-backed militia in Baghdad, in response to the killing of three American soldiers in Jordan.
After the Israelis killed a high-ranking Iranian general in Syria, the Biden administration led an international coalition to protect Israel when Iran, in retaliation, launched hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel in mid-April. None of these attacks resulted in significant damage in Israel.
Following the nuclear agreement with the Obama administration, the Iranians kept their uranium enrichment below the threshold needed for nuclear weapons. After Trump's withdrawal from the agreement, the Iranians now possess enough fissile material for several nuclear weapons, according to a report by the US Congressional Research Service earlier this year.
The Biden administration is currently negotiating a defense pact with the Saudis, which is intended to ease their concerns about the Iranians and their nuclear capabilities. This would be akin to US defense agreements with allies such as Japan or South Korea.
During the debate, I will be interested in understanding the candidates' approach towards the Iranian theocratic regime now that it is close to becoming nuclear-armed.
Abandoning an American ally
Trump and Biden together orchestrated what is arguably the most humiliating and calculating abandonment of an American ally in history when Trump withdrew from Afghanistan with the Taliban in 2019, with Biden carrying out the withdrawal two years later.
The chaotic, lethal withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan in August 2021 made the hurried American exit from Saigon in 1975 look like a simple changing of the guard at Buckingham Palace.
The U.S. left tens of thousands of Afghans who had worked with them behind and allowed the Taliban to re-establish their oppressive theocratic rule. The country now harbors approximately twenty terrorist groups, according to the United Nations. Biden's constant references to his love for democracy did not sit well during this episode.
The Association of Wartime Allies, an advocacy group for Afghans who had worked for the U.S., estimated that only around 3% of those who had worked for the U.S. government and applied for special visas were evacuated from Afghanistan, leaving 78,000 behind.
Given that each candidate share some responsibility for this situation, I hope the candidates might discuss viable solutions for rescuing these American allies from Afghanistan, as the U.S. does not recognize the Taliban regime or have an embassy in the country.
Despite all the debates about the southern border, for two long years under Biden, a Trump-era COVID health code known as Title 42 stayed in place. This policy resulted in nearly 2.8 million immigrant expulsions, many happening during Biden's presidency. The administration tried to lift Title 42 in 2022 but faced legal challenges, keeping the measure in effect until May 2023.
Once Title 42 expired, a massive wave of migrants rushed across the southern border, claiming asylum. In response this month, Biden ordered that migrants who cross the border illegally can't claim asylum if daily arrests exceed an average of more than 2,500, a figure that's been steady since he took office—effectively closing the border for asylum seekers.
Biden even allowed portions of Trump's border wall to continue being built, claiming the funds for the wall had already been allocated.
While Trump and Biden seem to have diverging views on immigration, Biden stated this month that hundreds of thousands of spouses of US citizens living illegally in the country could get a pathway to citizenship, whereas Trump has promised mass deportations of undocumented immigrants if reelected.
During Trump's term, his administration was condemned for separating over 3,000 migrant children from their families. However, when comparing their border policies, it appears that the two presidents are increasingly similar.
Immigrants are estimated to contribute around $7 trillion to the US economy over the next decade, making it crucial to discuss immigration policies beyond slogans like "Build the wall."
Next up, we have the elephant in the room: Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. If reelected, Trump might end US support for the war in Ukraine. Trump himself claims he could end the war within 24 hours, but given the ongoing fighting for over a decade since Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, this seems unlikely.
Trump's former national security advisor, John Bolton, mentioned on the podcast "In the Room" that if Trump is reelected, he would likely carry out threats to withdraw from NATO.
In contrast to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, this spring, Trump remained silent on a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, allowing more than 100 Republican House members to vote for the necessary aid.
During the debate, I'll be keen to hear both candidates' plans for the Ukraine war and NATO, an alliance that Trump's former defense secretary, Jim Mattis, called "the most successful and powerful military alliance in modern history."
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