Forecasts - Thuringian tradespeople look to 2024 with concern
Thomas Malcherek, Managing Director of the Thuringian Association of Skilled Crafts, expects considerable problems in parts of the skilled crafts sector in the coming year. "I'm worried about 2024," he told the German Press Agency in Erfurt. This applies above all to the large construction trade sector, which accounts for around one in four businesses in Thuringia. New construction projects by private and commercial clients and project developers had fallen dramatically, as had the number of building permits. "What is not approved now will not be built in the next few months."
Malcherek calls for more tax incentives for residential construction, which already existed in the past. Today, investors are too rarely putting their money into the purchase and modernization of apartment buildings.
Slump in construction orders in spring
According to forecasts, there could be short-time working in the Thuringian building trade as early as Easter. "This is already a topic in the companies. There are no orders," said Malcherek. In his opinion, it is questionable whether the lowering of the real estate transfer tax in Thuringia from 6.5 to 5.0 will bring significant improvements to the order situation. The tax reduction was the right thing to do because Thuringia had a high tax rate compared to other federal states. In the medium term, it could make it easier financially for young families to build.
According to Malcherek, the foreseeable difficult situation could even lead to building tradespeople in their 60s retiring earlier and giving up their businesses. "One reason could be that losses are to be avoided and there is hardly any prospect of the business being handed over to a younger person anyway." Some businesses may just be downsizing.
Fewer orders, but still waiting times
This could lead to the paradoxical situation that clients would still have to wait until their requests are implemented. In recent years, clients have sometimes had to wait a long time for tradespeople to arrive because their order books were full.
According to the Handwerkstag, there are currently around 29,700 craft businesses in Thuringia. With around 148,000 employees and around 6,500 young people in training, they are an economic heavyweight and an important employer. However, the number of businesses has been falling for years. "This will not get any better in the future," said the managing directors.
Finishing trade with alternative options
The situation in the finishing trade is less tense than in the main construction trade, said Malcherek. There is still a better order backlog there, and the companies can also absorb some of it through modernization. In the heating, plumbing, flooring, painting, electrical, safety and control technology sectors, there are more alternative options for companies. "This will continue."
The situation in the automotive industry has been good so far. "Sales and repairs were very good in 2023." But there are also signs of weaker development this year. The short-term end to subsidies for e-cars has caused uncertainty. It is difficult to predict how private consumption will develop following the significant increases in income in some cases and possibly continued high inflation.
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Source: www.stern.de
